Ontario PCs lead in 2 Liberal strongholds ahead of byelections

Candidates for the Ontario PC Party are leading in two Liberal strongholds a week ahead of the Aug. 1 byelections, new polls show.

Premier Kathleen Wynne called for byelections in five ridings after Liberal MPPs, including former premier Dalton McGuinty, resigned their seats in Etobicoke-Lakeshore, London-West, Ottawa South, Scarborough-Guildwood and Windsor-Tecumseh.

In Etobicoke-Lakeshore, nearly one in two voters is expected to cast a ballot for PC star candidate Doug Holyday. The riding has been Liberal since former education minister Laurel Broten unseated the PC’s Morley Kells in 2003.

The poll conducted by Forum Research Inc. on Thursday shows 47 per cent would vote for Holyday, a former Etobicoke mayor who’s on leave as deputy mayor of Toronto, while 40 per cent would vote for Liberal candidate Peter Milczyn, a Toronto councillor.

Only seven per cent polled would vote for NDP candidate P.C. Choo. And even fewer would vote for Green candidate Angela Salewsky at five per cent.

Forum Research president Lorne Bozinoff said Holyday is a “big name” in Etobicoke, while Milczyn, who barely won his 2010 council seat “isn’t the strongest candidate.”

That and the fact that the scandal over the cancelled GTA gas plants, which has cost taxpayers at least $585 million, continues to hurt the Liberals, he said.

The poll, which was based on a telephone survey of 689 randomly selected Etobicoke-Lakeshore residents 18 and older, is considered accurate plus or minus four percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

The PCs have been shut out of Etobicoke-Lakeshore for a decade and if they win, “this’ll be an accomplishment for the Tories,” Bozinoff said.

Scarborough-Guildwood

The Liberals appear to be safe in Scarborough-Guildwood where 38 per cent polled are expected to vote for their candidate Mitzie Hunter, the head of CivicAction, compared with 32 per cent for PC candidate Ken Kirupa. Former TTC chair Adam Giambrone, who’s running for the NDP, has 21 per cent.

Transit has been the topic du jour in Scarborough in recent days with the provincial Liberal minority government and Toronto city officials promising residents there a subway.

But the fact that the Liberals had to promise $1.4 billion for the Scarborough subway is bad news for them, Bozinoff said.

“It shouldn’t cost anything. It’s their heartland,” he said.

The poll is considered accurate plus or minus six percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Ottawa-South

In McGuinty country — Ottawa-South — the Liberals are in trouble. A survey of 631 residents indicates 48 per cent will vote for PC candidate Matt Young, compared to 34 per cent for Liberal candidate John Fraser.

Twelve per cent of those polled will vote for NDP candidate Bronwyn Funiciello, while five per cent would vote for Green candidate Taylor Howarth.
“Maybe the McGuinty magic has sort of worn out in that riding,” Bozinoff said.

The poll of 631 residents is accurate to within plus or minus four percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Polls for London-West and Windsor-Tecumseh were conducted on Thursday, but results weren’t immediately available.