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Latest Ontario election poll shows main parties in 3-way tie

The three main parties running in the Ontario are in a three-way statistical tie in the latest poll before Thursday’s election in Ontario.

The Ipsos Reid poll found among decided voters, 33 per cent would vote for the Liberals, 31 per cent for the Progressive Conservatives (PCs) and 30 per cent for the NDP.

But among those most likely to vote, support swings toward the PCs, who have 36 per cent, and the Liberals and NDP trail with 30 per cent apiece.

Support for the other parties ranges from four to five per cent.

Ipsos Reid said the 905 region will be the “primary battleground” where the election will be fought.

“A few points either way in this region, due to galvanized or anemic turnout, could significantly impact the outcome of the election,” the pollster said.

Among decided voters in the 905 region, the PCs (34 per cent) and Liberals (33 per cent) are tied, with the NDP (26 per cent) not far behind.

In the 416, the Liberals (41 per cent) are ahead of the NDP (33 per cent) and the PCs (21 per cent).

Ipsos Reid said the NDP could be a spoiler in the 416 if it picks up enough seats from the Liberals.

The online poll was conducted between Friday and Wednesday using a sample of 1,991 Ontarians The results are accurate to within +/-2.4 percentage points.

In another poll published on Tuesday, the Liberals have the lead over the PCs.

The Forum Research poll, published on the Toronto Star’s website, shows the Liberals with 42 per cent of voter support, the Conservatives at 35 per cent and the New Democrats at 19 per cent. The Green Party came in fourth with three per cent.

Although Forum CEO Lorne Bozinoff cautions that the results are within the margin of error, he finds the Green vote and a good number of NDP support has migrated to the Liberal side.

Bozinoff predicts a Liberal majority of 61 seats to 35 for the PCs and the NDP at holding 11 seats.

The poll was conducted on Monday. Click here to read full poll results.

Polling stations are open on Thursday from 9 a.m. to 9 p.m.

Click here for more information on where and how to vote.