Tory gaining ground with city-wide support: poll

John Tory has increased his lead over second-place candidate Doug Ford in the race to be Toronto’s next mayor, according to the latest poll from Forum Research.

The poll puts Tory in first place with 43 per cent of voter support. Ford’s support was polled at 33 per cent, while Olivia Chow picked up 20 per cent.

The results are based on a random poll of 1,167 respondents conducted on Monday. The results are considered accurate plus or minus three per cent, 19 times out of 20.

In the last Forum poll, Tory had a seven-point lead over Ford, at 38 to 31 per cent, respectively.

This latest poll suggests Tory’s lead over second-place candidates is strengthening. Tory has led in all polls since July 30, with Rob Ford, Doug Ford, and Chow rotating through the second-place spot.

Forum CEO Lorne Bozinoff said he believes Toronto is heading for change at city hall.

“That’s amazing – back in June [Tory] was at 24 [per cent] and he was in third place. Now he’s in first place at 43 [per cent] and a 10-point lead,” Bozinoff said.

Tory appears to be making in-roads in the inner suburbs, including in Ford-stronghold Etobicoke. According to Forum, Tory leads in all the pre-amalgamation cities save for North York, where Ford has more support, and Scarborough, where Tory and Ford are tied.

Chow sits 13 points behind Tory as her support continues to slide. Forum had previously pegged Chow with 25 per cent of the vote.

Bozinoff said the drop in Chow’s support actually hurts Ford, even though he remains in real contention.

“He’s kept the Ford Nation and more. When Rob got out, Rob was at 28, and now Doug’s at 33,” he said.

But Bozinoff said Ford will find it difficult to chip away at Tory with Chow’s numbers so low.

Read the full poll results below, or click here for a mobile-friendly version.

See interactive chart on voter preference for mayoral candidates; weekly poll results courtesy of Forum Research. (Hover cursor over chart to view details.) Mobile users, click here.

The Forum data suggests voter preference for Rob Ford transferred to Doug Ford when the mayor dropped out of the mayoral race on Sept. 12.

And the poll results also suggest that voter preference for Tory climbed at possibly Chow’s expense beginning in July.

Forum poll on Toronto mayoral race: Sept. 29

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