Toronto municipal election: 13 wards to watch

There are more than 350 candidates vying for one of the 44 council seats in the Toronto municipal election.

Thirty-eight councillors are seeking re-election, including Rob Ford. Six councillors, including Gloria Lindsay Luby, Karen Stintz and Mike Del Grande, are leaving office at the end of this term.

Here are the 13 key wards anticipated to be hotly contested or up for grabs.

Ward 2 Etobicoke North: This ward is the heart of Ford Nation, so even though Rob Ford is undergoing chemotherapy for a rare form of cancer, he could win his old ward “without leaving his hospital bed,” 680News political specialist John Stall says.

Before his 2010 mayoral win, Ford represented this ward as councillor for a decade. And his brother Doug Ford has been the councillor there for the last four years.

Polling done in September by Forum Research showed their nephew, Michael Ford, who was running with virtually no political experience for the ward seat before the switcheroo on Sept. 12, had 50 per cent of the votes, compared to 30 percent for challenger Andray Domise. Domise, a Jamaican businessman, has attracted media attention by attacking the mayor on his record and his behaviour. With Rob Ford back now in the mix for the ward, the latest Forum Research poll (Sept. 12) shows him with 59 per cent of the votes compared to the 26 per cent of his nearest competitor, Domise.

Ward 3 Etobicoke Centre: The one candidate name that jumps out at you in this ward race is Stephen Holyday. He is the son of ex-councillor Doug Holyday. Though there are nine other candidates, Stall believes it’ll be an “automatic transfer” of votes to Holyday’s son. The elder Holyday, who is a former deputy mayor of Toronto and the ex-mayor of Etobicoke before amalgamation, “wasn’t disliked by anybody,” Stall says.

Watch the Ward 3 all candidates debate.

Ward 4 Etobicoke Centre: If Coun. Gloria Lindsay Luby were to run again in this ward it’d be a rematch with her 2010 rival John Campbell. Instead, Campbell, who lost to Luby by only 309 votes last time, will be running against nine other candidates, including Humber Valley Village Residents’ Association president, Niels Christensen, who Luby has endorsed. There’s also ex-PC cabinet minister Chris Stockwell, who tried but failed last year to get appointed as the caretaker councillor in Ward 3 for the rest of the current term when Doug Holyday left to represent the Progressive Conservatives for what turned out to be a brief stint at Queen’s Park.

Watch the Ward 4 all candidates debate.

Ward 5 Etobicoke-Lakeshore: This ward is up for grabs now that veteran Peter Milczyn has left city hall after 14 years for Queen’s Park following his June provincial election win against the PC’s Doug Holyday to represent the Liberals in the Etobicoke-Lakeshore riding.

There are nine candidates running in this ward race. The most notable one, Justin Di Ciano, who lost to Milczyn by only 109 votes, is running again. And because Di Ciano lost by 109 votes, Stall believes he will win the ward this time.

Ward 7 York West: Giorgio Mammoliti, who has represented York West municipally and provincially for over two decades and has been plagued by health and code of conduct issues this term, is again being challenged by 2010 rival Nick Di Nizio, who placed second and lost by 14 per cent.

Di Nizio is running again and a Forum Research poll shows the two rivals are in a virtual tie with 29 per cent for Mammoliti and 27 per cent for Di Nizio. Another candidate to watch here is first-timer: Toronto youth cabinet leader, Keegan Henry-Mathieu.

Watch the Ward 7 all candidates debate.

Ward 9 York Centre: Three familiar names will be on this ward ballot but all eyes will be on the rematch between incumbent Maria Augimeri and Gus Cusimano, who in the last election sought a court challenge over the election results but ultimately lost by 89 votes.

Forum Research, despite a small sampling size of 145, says she has a comfortable lead of 54 per cent over Cusimano’s 21 per cent. Stall believes “Augimeri is strong enough to win.”

“Her opponent is backed by the Fords. But she has the name recognition,” Stall says.

Watch the Ward 9 all candidates debate.

Ward 12 York South-Weston: Frank Di Giorgio, a veteran city councillor who has represented the ward for 14 years, is competing against three other candidates, including the 2010 runner-up, Nick Dominelli, who lost by 422 votes.

Another candidate to watch here is ex-Liberal MP John Nunziata, who was part of the Liberal Rat Pack back in the late 1980s and ran unsuccessfully in the 2003 Toronto mayoral race. He has said Doug Ford’s decision to run for mayor prompted him to run for a ward seat this time.

“My gut tells me John is dreaming in Technicolor,” Stall says. “His political capital has been spent and that was a long time ago.”

Watch the Ward 12 all candidates debate.

Ward 16 Eglinton-Lawrence: Karen Stintz dropped out of the mayoral race in August and the councillor says she wouldn’t be seeking re-election. So this ward, which has 16 candidates, is up for grabs. Runner-up in the last election Terry Mills, an urban planner, is running again as well as fire and security officer Michael Coll. Jean-Pierre Boutros, Stintz’s ex-advisor when she was the TTC chair, is also seeking to replace her.

Ward 17 Davenport: Challenger Alejandra Bravo, who ran in 2003 and 2006, is stepping back into the ring for a third time to try to unseat incumbent Cesar Palacio who has been this ward’s councillor since 2003. Of the three challengers Bravo is the chief one to watch in this ward. A Forum poll says 43 per cent of those polled would vote for Palacio, compared to 33 per cent for Bravo. Twelve per cent would vote for someone else and another 13 per cent remained undecided.

Ward 18 Davenport: Challenger Alex Mazer, a lawyer who worked for ex-Liberal finance minister Dwight Duncan at Queen’s Park, is one of 11 candidates trying to unseat incumbent Ana Bailao. It hasn’t been a spotless term for this centrist councillor, who pleaded guilty last year to driving with a blood-alcohol level over 80 milligrams as part of a plea deal that saw her impaired driving charge dropped.

Ward 20 Trinity-Spadina: Adam Vaughan, who represented this ward for eight years, has moved onto bigger, greener pastures on Parliament Hill after winning a federal seat in a June federal byelection. Candidate Sarah Thomson dropped out of the current mayoral race on Sept. 9 and is now running in this predominantly NDP riding. So it’ll be hard to win against Joe Cressy, who earlier was hoping for mentor Olivia Chow’s federal seat but lost to Vaughan and is now running for councillor in this ward. Chow represented this riding federally for eight years until she tossed her name in for the mayoral bid earlier this year. Forum Research poll shows Cressy has a wide lead of 70 per cent, compared with 44 per cent for ex-No Jets T.O. chair Anshul Kapoor. Thomson polled second to last with 21 per cent and film promoter Reg Hartt was dead last with 19 per cent.

Stall believes Cressy can win because there’s no strong opponent as an alternative.

Watch the Ward 20 all candidates debate.

Ward 30 Toronto-Danforth: Incumbent Paula Fletcher is up again against TV personality Liz West as well as broadcaster Jane Farrow, who is the founding director of Jane’s Walk and an ex-assistant to Coun. Mary-Margaret McMahon. Of 407 polled by Forum Research on Sept. 9, Fletcher, who’s been councillor for this ward since 2003, has 56 per cent of votes compared to 18 per cent for West and 13 per cent for Farrow.

But Stall says Fletcher could be upset if Ford supporters get involved. During this term, Fletcher has been a vocal opponent of the Fords who she believes have thrown their support behind West after Mayor Ford addressed her as Coun. West at a January council meeting.

Beaches-East York: Ex-councillor Sandra Bussin, who was ousted in 2010 by Mary-Margaret McMahon with 65 per cent of the votes, is trying to unseat the incumbent in this ward race. But Stall believes like Nunziata that Bussin, a four-term city councillor, has used up all her political capital.

A Forum poll on Sept. 9 indicates McMahon has a lock on this ward with 60 per cent of those surveyed while Bussin has only 21 per cent.

“McMahon’s awareness [with voters] is very high (90 per cent) as is her approval (68 per cent),” Forum Research said. “Sandra Bussin, although well known (86% aware) is not well‐approved (33 per cent approval).”

Watch the Ward 32 all candidates debate.

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