Don’t trust the groundhog to predict the weather

I’m not the biggest fan of Groundhog Day.

I get that it is a light-hearted, mid-winter romp to a quaint small town, but I am here to tell you that the woodchucks are not very good at getting it right when it comes to those rest of the winter prognostications. In fact, a coin flip might actually have better luck.

Why is Groundhog day on February 2?

It is typically the halfway point between the winter solstice, and Vernal or Spring Equinox.

The prediction all boils down to one day, at an exact time, and one shadow. Does the groundhog see their shadow? If they do, that means we are in for six more weeks of winter. If there’s no shadow, that means we may catch a break and see some warmer weather arriving a bit faster.

So is there any weather logic behind this?

Here is how I think it might have some loose connection.

Typically, a cold and sunny February day in our rough latitude here in the Northern Hemisphere would be supplied by a big ridge of high pressure originating out of the Arctic.

It’s cold, clear and there is little moisture to form clouds. It’s usually a pretty good sign that the jet stream or upper level winds has been positioned well to the south and it is going to take some time for it to work its way back up to it’s summer position, which is well to our north.

As that is happening, it would appear to many that spring is taking its sweet time to get here, so you could easily see a few more weeks of cold and snow.

If it is cloudy and there has been snow falling, it is probably a sign that the upper level winds has already started the migration to the north, and warmer air will start to trickle in after.

Again, this is not weighted in heavy scientific statistics to back up the theory, but my assumption on where they may have connected the dots when meteorologists weren’t a thing.

Willie and his forecasts

I have crunched the numbers, and for the past 21 years, it turns out that our good ol’ buddy Wiarton Willie got it right only about 28.5 per cent of the time. 

I will say that Wiarton Willie may be playing at a disadvantage compared to some of his other furry forecasters, like Punxsutawney Phil, and it has to do with where the town of Wiarton is located (and where Willie lives) and lake effect snow.

The last word

Fur-ball forecasts and the Farmers Almanac hold a special place in my heart … the garbage part of it. When it all comes down to shorter or longer winters, it has way more to do with ocean currents and blocking pattern in the North Atlantic than what the weather is like on a single day at 7 a.m.