Future of public transit could be impacted by COVID-19

As the COVID-19 pandemic puts the breaks on daily commutes by TTC or GO Transit, the unprecedented ridership lows could jeopardize the future of public transit.

“It’s alarming for Metrolinx, it’s alarming for the TTC,” Ryerson University professor Murtaza Haider, who is an expert in real estate and transportation, told CityNews

Since the virus hit back in March, ridership on GO Transit is down by 80 per cent. At the beginning of the first wave, the TTC was reporting a monthly shortfall of $92 million, but its losses have improved since then to about $70 million a month.

“We were advocating for the Downtown Relief Line to ease congestion at Yonge and Bloor, but that congestion is gone now,” Haider said. He added that it will be hard for people to forget the ease and convenience of working from home.

“Do I agree ridership will return in a few years yes because we are a growing city? The question is will it be next year? The answer is no. Will it be the year or two down the road? The answer is no.”

“It’s a brave new world. Those hoping to go back to the old days will be surprised that this will take hold.”

Metrolinx is spearheading $16 billion in projects that will expand and connect transit across the province.

The redesign of the Cooksville GO station, for example, was completed by early summer. The $128-million transit hub on the Milton line will connect commuters to the future LRT along Hurontario Street in Mississauga. Right now, mostly buses are serving the state-of-the-art terminal that is mostly sitting empty.

“Going forward we really need to rationalize our investment in infrastructure. Once you pave over, once you build over, if there is no demand, it becomes a white elephant,” Haider warns.

Metrolinx CEO Phil Verster told CityNews that projects such as the Eglinton Crosstown West, the Scarborough subway extension and the Ontario Line will continue to proceed at this time.

“All of our investments, especially GO expansion, are planned against a timeline of 60 years from now. This is a province that will continue to see substantial growth,” Verster said.

“It’s a very interesting phenomenon.”

Both the TTC and Metrolinx are surveying commuter patterns trying to understand what lies ahead. It’s very likely this pandemic could put an end to rush hour as we know it.

“People are commuting at different times of day and they are commuting all day long. With more people working from home our ridership numbers are flat throughout the day — it’s a very interesting phenomenon” TTC spokesperson Stuart Green said.

The TTC will be getting $404 million in intergovernmental bailout money, funding that will keep things running for now.

Both the TTC and Metrolinx are taking a wait and see approach, but Haider said beyond the vaccine we will be entering a new normal.

“It’s a brave new world. Those hoping to go back to the old days will be surprised that this will take hold,” he said.