Response to 4th wave ICU surge may be challenging: Ontario science table
Posted November 30, 2021 11:37 pm.
A new report has found it will be challenging for Ontario’s health care system to respond quickly to an increase in critically ill COVID patients during the fourth wave.
The report on critical care capacity from the Ontario COVID-19 Science Advisory Table has found staffing shortages, worker burnout and the resumption of treatment for other health conditions may strain the health system in the event of a patient spike.
The report also raised the issue that influenza, which was more or less absent during the last flu season, may severely sicken more people this winter and they may also require intensive care in hospitals
The health system will still be able to respond, but without some of the same flexibility available in previous waves, said Dr. Kali Barrett, a Toronto critical care physician.
“We made it through the previous waves and we were there for the needs of the Ontario public, and our priority and our goal will be to do the same… but it would be harder in a successive time,” Barrett said.
The science table says public health measures are necessary to keep COVID-19 and flu cases low and says longer-term measures are needed to tackle staffing issues.
“This would not be the time to pursue sort of any relaxation of public health measures,” said Barrett. “Given also the uncertainty that we have right now with the new variant, I think there’s just so much unknown, that we just need to continue to play it very safe.”
The province currently has over 150 COVID patients in intensive care units across the province.
According to the latest modelling from the advisory table, ICU occupancy will continue to climb in the coming weeks and may reach around 200 patients by the new year.
Ontario reached a grim milestone on Tuesday with 10,000 virus-related deaths.
The province is investigating four other possible cases of the omicron COVID-19 variant Monday after the country’s first two positive samples were detected in Ottawa.
Chief Medical Officer of Health, Dr. Kieran Moore, says Ontario is performing genome sequencing on all eligible positive COVID-19 tests to identify any omicron cases.
Hundreds of people who had recently travelled from African countries deemed high-risk for the variant were contacted for testing.
The next step of the Ford government’s reopening plan is scheduled for Jan. 17 and could see capacity limits gradually lifted in places where proof of vaccination is not required. The vaccine certificate could also be gradually lifted at this time.
The province intended on removing capacity limits in nightclubs and strip clubs on Nov. 15, but paused the gradual reopening due to a recent surge in COVID-19 infections.
The province says the move will be delayed for at least 28 days as they continue to monitor the COVID indicators.
With files from the Canadian Press
