Cut contacts by 50 per cent to blunt Omicron spread, Science Table suggests

Ontario’s panel of COVID-19 expert advisers is calling for a rapid rollout of vaccine booster doses and stronger public health measures to try and blunt the spread of the Omicron variant, with cases counts projected to reach 10,000 per day if nothing is done.

The Ontario Science Table says almost every health unit across the province is reporting a surge in COVID cases and that Omicron is expected to surpass Delta as the dominant variant this week.

COVID-19 hospitalizations and ICU admissions are increasing and that without any additional public health measures, ICU occupancy will surpass 600 by the end of the month. The panel says by implementing an immediate circuit breaker that cuts contacts by 50 per cent on top of measures already announced, that number could be cut in half.

Dr. Adalsteinn Brown, co-chair of the province’s science table, says the Science Table is not calling for a lockdown or stay at home order.

“What we’re really talking about when talking about a circuit breaker is reducing contacts by 50 per cent and pushing the level of vaccine administration – boosters and in children – up to a total of 250,000 to 350,000 a day,” said Dr. Brown. “It’s specifically those things that reduce contacts, that may be capacity limitations in different settings, it may be a strong enforcement of masking indoors …it’s not really any set of new things that we haven’t seen before, it’s those core public health measures.”

Dr. Brown added that this “could be the worst wave of the pandemic.”

Data presented by the panel on Thursday shows Omicron cases in the UK, Scotland, Denmark and South Africa are doubling every two to four days and that each case of Omicron is infecting six times more individuals than Delta.

“Although uncertainty persists, waiting for more information will eliminate the opportunity for action,” the panel says.

The panel says says while vaccines are less effective against Omicron infection, boosters can substantially increase protection. They note that two doses of the vaccine still provides strong protection but the risk of severe illness is dramatically higher in unvaccinated individuals.

The new projections come a day after the provincial government announced a series of new measures in response to the highly infectious Omicron variant.

Among them is an accelerated rollout of COVID-19 booster shots, which will be available starting Monday to residents over 18 whose second dose was at least three months ago.

“Today’s modelling affirms that the best defence against the highly-transmissible Omicron variant is dramatically accelerating the rollout of booster shots”, said a spokesperson for Health Minister Christine Elliott.

“Yesterday, Ontario issued a call to arms as we announced a significant escalation of capacity to administer 200,000 to 300,000 vaccines per day while also expanding eligibility to everyone 18 and over at the three-month mark after their second dose.”

The province also said it will cut capacity to 50 per cent at certain large venues, including sporting arenas and cinemas, starting Saturday.

In addition, rapid tests will be offered for free at various locations, such as malls, libraries and LCBO stores, as part of a holiday testing blitz.

The province’s top doctor, Dr. Kieran Moore, has said Omicron is infecting between four and eight times more people than Delta.