Ontario election 2022: Key ridings to watch

Exclusive polling for CityNews indicates the Liberals could pick up at least three new Toronto-area seats in next week’s provincial election.

Several high-profile candidates will be vying for key seats this upcoming Ontario election while many other ridings have been left up for grabs with the resignation of long-time MPPs.

Polling in these key ridings, by Forum Research for CityNews, shows the Liberals are on track to gain a seat from the Progressive Conservatives, and two more from the New Democratic Party.

Forum Research President Lorne Bozinoff tells CityNews this polling shows the PCs will likely be maintaining their lead in the strongholds. While they may lose some votes, it won’t affect them in most of their ridings, leading to yet another majority.

“Compared to their current majority, [it will be] a more rural-looking caucus, because the changes are going to be in the urban areas, so they may have less urban representation but will be maintaining their real representation pretty much.”

“Ontarians like to give governments two terms,” added Bozinoff. “Being re-elected after four year is a common thing in Ontario and I think that’s where we’re at right now. There’s no real burning issue that is driving people away from the conservatives.”

None of these eight key ridings will end up in the hands of the NDP, if this polling holds. However, Boznioff said it also looks likely the NDP will keep their status as Ontario’s official opposition.

“They may get fewer votes than the Liberals, but the Liberal vote is concentrated in such a way that they’re not going to get the same number of seats from the number of votes that they have, compared to the NDP.”

Here’s a look at these eight key ridings and how the polls suggest they could play out:

Ajax

2022 Candidates
PC: Patrice Barnes
Liberal: Amber Bowen
NDP: Christine Santos
Green Party: Neil Runnalls

Former MPP and Ford cabinet member Rod Phillips resigned from provincial politics following a tumultuous last few years in office, leaving his Ajax seat up for grabs.

In the 2018 election, nine percentage points separated Phillips from the second-place NDP candidate, but a fresh slate of political hopefuls has shaken things up.

Liberal candidate Amber Bowen, an elementary school teacher, is showing an eight-point lead in the polls at 40 per cent, according to Forum Research. New PC candidate Patrice Barnes, a local school board trustee, is expected to be the runner-up with 32 per cent of the vote.

Rounding out the rest of the major parties’ area candidates are journalist and children’s television producer Christine Santos for the NDP, and Toronto District School Board Principal Neil Runnalls, for the Green Party.

“The Tories don’t have their star candidate running … [and] it’s a fairly Liberal area,” explained Bozinoff. “The Liberals have a chance of flipping that one.”

2018 Results

PC: Rod Phillips – 19,078 (39.05 per cent)
NDP: Monique Hughes – 15,130 (30.97 per cent)
Liberal: Joe Dickson – 12,607 (25.80 per cent)
Green Party: Stephen Leahy – 1,224 (2.51 per cent)

Beaches-East York

2022 Candidates
PC: Angela Kennedy
Liberal: Mary-Margaret McMahon
NDP: Kate Dupuis
Green Party: Abhijeet Manay

A key seat left empty in Toronto-proper is Beaches-East York. Former NDP MPP Rima Berns-McGowan won her seat by a wide margin in 2018. Berns-McGowan isn’t running again this year. She has said it’s due to enormous toll the job of politics takes. Stepping in to the NDP candidacy is Dr. Kate Dupuis, a clinical neuropsychologist.

Representing the Liberals is former Toronto city councillor Mary-Margaret McMahon. McMahon believes in term limits for city councillors and resigned her municipal seat in 2018, after serving two terms.

“The Liberals are running a star candidate for that area,” noted Bozinoff. “She’s very well known.”

The Forum polling shows McMahon is holding a slim four-point lead, at 31 per cent, over Dupuis and the NDP, with conservative Angela Kennedy sitting at 23 per cent.

Green Party deputy leader Abhijeet Manay, who is running in this riding, is sitting in fourth with 14 per cent of the vote.

2018 Results

NDP: Rima Berns-McGown – 24,064 (48.21 per cent)
Liberal: Arthur Potts – 13,480 (27.01 per cent)
PC: Sarah Mallo – 9,202 (18.44 per cent)
Green Party: Debra Scott – 2,128 (4.26 per cent)

Barrie Springwater-Oro-Medonte

2022 Candidates
PC: Doug Downey (incumbent)
Liberal: Jeff Lehman
NDP: Beverley Patchell
Green Party: Elyse Robinson

This Barrie riding has two high-profile candidates vying to represent it at Queen’s Park, and it appears it will come down to the wire to see if the PCs can hold onto the seat. Progressive Conservative Attorney General Doug Downey looks to be in a tight race to keep his seat. He’s facing some stiff competition from the former mayor of Barrie, Jeff Lehman, who is running for the Liberals.

Downey currently sits one point back of Lehman who is polling at 41 per cent versus Downey’s 40 per cent. It’s a stark contrast from Downey’s 2018 victory, when he won by almost 16 points.

“Where someone’s a cabinet minister, but they don’t take care of local issues. They’re busy dealing with provincial issues,” noted Bozinoff. “They lose touch with what’s going on. And the Liberals have sent up a star candidate.”

NDP candidate Beverley Patchell and the Green Party’s Elyse Robinson are sitting back at 9 per cent and 3 per cent, respectively.

2018 Results

PC: Doug Downey – 20,445 (44.75 per cent)
NDP: Dan Janssen – 12,891 (28.21 per cent)
Liberal: Jeff Kerk – 6,210 (13.59 per cent)
Green Party: Keenan Aylwin – 5,354 (11.72 per cent)

King-Vaughan

2022 Candidates
PC: Stephen Lecce (incumbent)
Liberal: Gillian Vivona
NDP: Smantha Sanchez
Green Party: Ren Guidolin

Despite criticism for his handling of the education portfolio through COVID-19 pandemic, and the recent revelation he participated in “slave auction” during his time at a Western University fraternity, PC candidate Stephen Lecce seems primed to hold onto his seat in the 2022 election. Challenging him is Liberal candidate Gillian Vivona. She’s a teacher and author, as well as a long-time Liberal Party insider, who has served as riding president for current leader Steven Del Duca and former cabinet minister Greg Sorbara.

The Forum polling finds Lecce, at 46 per cent, currently has a 14-point lead against Vivona, who is sitting at 32 percent. That’s a tighter margin than his 33-point win in 2018, but still enough to get Lecce back in his seat at Queen’s Park.

“Lecce was in the public limelight almost continuously for four years. At, I would say, one of the most challenging portfolios to deal with during this time, but he toughed it out and looks like he’s going to get a good reward and be easily re-elected in his riding,” said Bozinoff.

2018 Results

PC: Stephen Lecce – 29,136 (56.62 per cent)
Liberal: Marilyn Lafrate – 12,012 (23.34 per cent)
NDP: Andrea Beal – 7,921 (15.39 per cent)
Green Party: Greg Locke – 1,754 (3.41 per cent)

Mississauga Centre

2022 Candidates
PC: Natalia Kusendova (incumbent)
Liberal: Sumira Malik
NDP: Sarah Walji
Green Party: Adriane Franklin

An interesting race is set to play out in Mississauga Centre, an area surrounded by four other ridings that often vote in blocks. In 2018, all four Mississauga ridings went to the PCs, part of the blue wave that swept most of the GTA, outside of Toronto.

Forum Research polls show a tight race between conservative incumbent Natalia Kusendova, and Liberal challenger Sumira Malik.

“It is a little close, but we’re calling it still for the Tories,” said Bozinoff.

Kusendova is expected to take 37 per cent of the vote, with Malik at 33 per cent. The four-percent spread is within Forum’s polling margin of error. In 2018, Kusendova took the riding by a margin of more 13 percent over her nearest opponent.

In April, media reported that Kusendova was being sued by Grant Gorchynski over $30,000 she received from him. Questions surround the nature of the transaction, and whether the cash was given as gifts or loans. Ontario’s integrity commissioner opened an investigation, but under provincial law it had to be suspended due to the start of the election.

If Mississauga Centre’s polling dictates how the rest of that city’s ridings play out, it could be an interesting area to watch on election night. Bozinoff said the Liberals need to win in Mississauga to have any hope of wining government. The area was a strongly held Liberal area prior to the 2018 election when they lost most of their seats and the blue PC tide rolled in.

“The Liberals aren’t quite there,” explained Bozinoff. “If they were able to gain another four or five points in popular support – it sounds like not very much, but in fact, it would be a bit of a challenge for them to do that – they would then be in a position to start sweeping the Mississauga-type seats.”

2018 Results

PC: Natalia Kusendova – 17,860 (40.86 per cent)
NDP: Laura Kaminker – 12,046 (27.56 per cent)
Liberal: Bobbie Daid – 11,102 (25.40 per cent)
Green Party: Noah Gould – 1,140 (2.63 per cent)

Parry Sound-Muskoka

2022 Candidates
PC: Graydon Smith
Liberal: (No Liberal running)
NDP: Erin Horvath
Green Party: Matt Richter

The Green Party is hoping to double its seat count in the Ontario legislature by winning in Parry Sound-Muskoka. Incumbent PC MPP Norm Miller is retiring after more than 20 years in the legislature. Former mayor of Bracebridge, Graydon Smith, is now vying for the spot under the Progressive Conservative umbrella.

Green candidate Matt Richter is taking another shot at the riding, after collecting almost 20 per cent of the vote back in 2018. Green leader Mike Schreiner has paid several visits to the area to campaign with Richter during the writ period.

No one will be running for the Liberals in this riding as their candidate was dropped in early May, due to having published a book detailing scientifically baseless views on homosexuality.

According to Forum Research, the PC’s Smith is polling ahead of Richter by 23 points at this point in the campaign. Graydon is sitting at 53 per cent, with Richter at 30 per cent. Despite the increase in support for the Green Party compared to 2018, it doesn’t look to be enough to flip the riding from the PCs.

“The Greens were hoping that they could get some of that Liberal vote … [but] that is a conservative riding is a conservative area,” said Bozinoff.  “It was wishful thinking on the part of the Greens and the others that they might be able to get some traction up there.”

2018 Results

PC: Norm Miller – 22,662 (48.07 per cent)
NDP: Erin Horvath – 10,385 (22.03 per cent)
Green Party: Matt Richter – 9,438 (20.02 per cent)
Liberal: Brenda Rhodes – 4,071 (8.64 per cent)

Peterborough-Kawartha

2022 Candidates
PC: Dave Smith (incumbent)
Liberal: Greg Dempsey
NDP: Jen Deck
Green Party: Robert Gibson

Dating back to 1977, the party to win Peterborough-Kawartha has also won the general election. Ontario’s bellwether riding is in line with province-wide polls indicating another Progressive Conservative government. PC candidate and incumbent Dave Smith is expected to hold the riding at 41 per cent. Behind him is Liberal candidate Greg Dempsey, at 32 per cent.

“It looks like that bellwether riding is going to keep his record of being a bellwether after Election Day,” said Boznioff.

2018 Results

PC: Dave Smith – 22,904 (37.68 per cent)
NDP: Sean Conway – 20,518 (33.75 per cent)
Liberal: Jeff Leal – 14,946 (24.59 per cent)
Green Party: Gianne Broughton – 2,024 (3.33 per cent)

Toronto Centre

2022 Candidates
PC: Jess Goddard
Liberal: David Morris
NDP: Kristyn Wong-Tam
Green Party: Nicki Ward

With departing NDP incumbent Suze Morrison leaving the Toronto-Centre seat open, the party recruited a high-profile candidate in former Toronto city councillor Krystin Wong-Tam. However, Wong-Tam’s experience and name recognition don’t appear to be enough to keep the riding in NDP hands.

“It would be disappointing for her, [but] it’s still a week to go,” said Bozinoff.

Liberal candidate David Morris describes himself as a community advocate. He has chaired the board of The 519 Community Centre, and worked with Toronto’s People with AIDS Foundation.

Morris is leading with 38 per cent of the vote, compared to Wong-Tam’s 30 per cent, a stark contrast to the NDP’s 2018 win in the riding, by over 26 per centage points.

Prior to Morrison’s win for the NDP, the riding had been exclusively represented by the Liberals going back to the district’s creation in 1999.

2018 Results

NDP: Suze Morrison – 23,688 (53.66 per cent)
Liberal: David Morris – 11,986 (27.15 per cent)
PC: Meredith Cartwright – 6,234 (14.12 per cent)
Green Party: Adam Sommerfield – 1,377 (3.12 per cent)

The poll was conducted on May 24, 2022 by Forum Research using an interactive voice response telephone survey of randomly selected eligible voters. The results based on the total sample are considered accurate +/- 7% for a sample of 200 and 9% for a sample of 100, 19 times out of 20.