Could former B.C. premier Christy Clark be the next Liberal leader?
It’s anyone’s guess who may end up being the next leader of the Canadian Liberal Party, but there are some familiar names rolling around on Monday after Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced his resignation.
Trudeau’s decision comes after months of rampant speculation around his tenure and ongoing political turbulence.
Over the winter holiday break, Trudeau reflected on his future amid growing calls from his caucus to step down. On Monday morning, he met with Governor General Mary Simon and asked for the prorogation of Parliament until March 24.
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“I’m a fighter; every bone in my body has always told me to fight because I care deeply about Canadians; I care deeply about this country,” said Trudeau.
“The fact is, despite best efforts to work through it, Parliament has been paralyzed for months after what has been the longest session for a minority government in Canadian history. I intend to resign as Party Leader and Prime Minister after the party selects its next leader following a national, robust, rigorous, and competitive process.”
Trudeau says he asked Liberal party president Sachit Mehra to launch a leadership race immediately.
Who will enter that leadership race is the biggest question remaining.
According to University of the Fraser Valley political science professor Hamish Telford, rumours of former B.C. premier Christy Clark’s intent to take the helm have been around for quite a while.
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“Ms. Clark is quite serious about putting her name forward in the leadership race,” Telford told 1130 NewsRadio on Monday.
“The sure sign that she was serious about it reports have been that she’s been in Quebec working on her French. And so she’s obviously been working behind the scenes on this, and would almost almost certainly go through with it,” he explained.
But now that the job is becoming available, Telford isn’t convinced that her chances are particularly high.
“At the moment, there are bigger names likely to enter the race, with bigger national profiles than Christy Clark,” he said. “But it’s certainly an opportunity for her to raise her national profile.”
Among those set to look at the top job are former minister of finance Chrystia Freeland, current Minister of Finance Dominic LeBlanc, and former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney.
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“With the Liberal Party’s base of support being in Toronto, in Montreal, I think Ms. Clark has some work to do to make inroads and build her base in that part of the country,” Telford said. Even if she does make inroads, if Clark doesn’t become successfully competent in both official languages, Telford says she won’t be considered a “serious” candidate by party members.
But assuming that her French is good, “what ideas does she bring to the table? One thing that we do know that she brings to the table is that she is an excellent campaigner. She exudes optimism and she loves campaigning. Everyone knows that about Christy Clark, but does she actually have ideas that will move the country forward at this very difficult time?” Telford asked.
“Does she have a strategy to deal with Donald Trump, for example, besides just her natural charm? And she is very charming, so I think that’s really what she would have to project to Liberals to be considered a serious contender.”
Telford anticipates that there could even be multiple leadership races in the coming years. “If she’s not successful this time, a bid this time could set her up for the next opportunity.”
Looking back at history, namely when Paul Martin lost to Stephen Harper, the Liberal Party had two leaders before Trudeau took over and brought them to electoral victory.
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“When Stephen Harper resigned, the Conservatives had an interim leader, then two more leaders, until Pierre Poillievre started to get traction with the public. It tends to take some time for political parties now to rebuild after 10 years in office,” he said.
“The Liberal Party is very down in the polls. It’s been very badly damaged over the last couple of years and I think could take, as was the case in the past, a couple of leaders before the party starts to become competitive again,” Telford added.
Can the Liberals turn their fortunes around before this year’s election?
As Trudeau’s position as the country’s prime minister was becoming increasingly untenable, it’s been a question of if, not when, he would step down.
University of British Columbia political science lecturer Stewart Prest believes that the lack of public support, along with his Liberal caucus, has had major implications on whether the Liberals will be at all successful come this year’s election.
“I think it’s very unlikely, given historical precedent, given the current circumstances, that the new leader will be able to change the Liberal fortunes at this point — it is just so far into the time of Liberal governance,” Prest explained, pointing to the almost decade-long reign.
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Prest says there’s just not enough time for a new leader to signal a break with the past.
“In important ways, given the frustrations that we hear from voters, this is something about a populist political moment where people are looking for a different direction, and it seems like even the particular names that we’re hearing bandied about … they are of the same kind of institutional background, in a way, as Mr. Trudeau,” Prest said.
“I don’t think they are likely to be able to change the game in a meaningful way,” he added.
Prest believes that as the race will need to be wrapped up by March 24, it seems “quite unlikely” that Clark will be able to have an influence in the leadership race.
“For somebody to come from essentially outside of the federal structure of the party, and then someone who we don’t have any sense of having a strong undercurrent of support already coming from the party — as Mr. Carney clearly does — it is a very steep hill to climb, indeed.
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“I think the only path available to her would be to make the case, essentially, that the Liberals have lost touch with Canadians, and that she can be a kind of populist Liberal figure that can bring them back in touch with the population.
“I guess there is a path there, but it’s not one that I would bet heavily on,” Prest explained.
With files from Lucas Casaletto, Angelyna Mintz and Dean Recksiedler.