MacDonald on MMA: UFC 139 picks

I hate to say I told you so, but in my last blog I said what if the big first fight on FOX is over in mere seconds, and that’s what happened. With the heavyweights, especially at that level, there’s always the danger that someone is going to get knocked out in one punch and the fight will end relatively quickly. It would have been a different story if it was a big KO, like when Gabriel Gonzaga knocked out Mirko Cro Cop. But this was just your regular TKO and it was over in 64 seconds.

I think it was a bit of a disappointment. And it was just brought to my attention that Americans who watched it on FOX didn’t even get to see the Ben Henderson-Clay Guida co-main event. I thought that was the only saving grace in that situation. Like a good Canadian, I watched it on Sportsnet and that co-headliner lived up to my expectations.

I’m not saying the event was detrimental by any means to the entire deal with FOX. It’s just the tip of the iceberg of what’s to come. To any hardcore UFC or MMA fan, it was no big deal because they probably watched it on Facebook and saw the fight live.

It was just a lot of buildup and not a lot of excitement when the smoke cleared. That’s not to say there won’t be hundreds of amazing fights on FOX in the future. Like any good company and any good network, I think they’ll learn from mistakes, consider that a mistake, and do things differently next time.

I saw an interview with Cain Velasquez’s trainer Javier Mendez and he said in no uncertain terms that Cain did everything wrong in that fight. He didn’t do anything they planned on doing. I know firsthand if you don’t stick to your game plan, the outcome is usually not desirable.

Meanwhile Ben Henderson did everything right. He showed once again he has amazing takedown defence, is very hard to submit, has decent standup, and pushed the pace and made it a fight for the entire 15 minutes. Guida’s plan was to outwrestle him and get him to the ground, but Henderson used his size and strength to put pressure on him the whole time. Guida didn’t really have an answer for anything.

I think Frankie Edgar will have the edge standing and I think Ben Henderson will try to do the same thing as against Guida, use his size and strength, close the distance and grind and try to beat him up. I’m looking forward to watching it.

Here are my UFC 139 picks:

Dan Henderson vs. Shogun Rua

Shogun’s one of those guys if he feels he has prepared well he’s a different fighter than if he feels he hasn’t. I haven’t heard much about how he’s prepared for this one but I never like to bet against Dan Henderson. I’ll pick Henderson by TKO.

Cung Le vs. Wanderlei Silva

I really believe Silva has been a legend but his best days are behind him. He has held on for too many fights. Even though Le’s near the end of his career, he does too many tricky things standing and I think he’ll catch Wanderlei and win by KO or TKO.

Brian Bowles vs. Urijah Faber

Both guys have lost to bantamweight champion Dominick Cruz. Brian Bowles has a couple wins since then; Urijah is coming right off a loss to the champ. This is a good fight. I think Urijah, if he decides to use his wrestling, could win. But if he decides to stand and strike he could lose. I’ll go with Urijah.

Martin Kampmann vs. Rick Story

Another good fight. Maybe even a fight of the night candidate. I haven’t talked to Martin in a while. He’s coming back after a tough loss to Diego Sanchez that in my opinion he won. I even re-watched it thinking I must have missed something. It’s funny though because now he’s fighting a guy who I think is going to fight a lot like Diego did. They have similar styles. I’m going to go with Martin in this one. I know he has had some time off. He and wife had a new baby and he had a good opportunity to get some rest and I think he’ll come back strong.

Stephan Bonnar vs. Kyle Kingsbury

I think Kyle if he decides to use his wrestling will give Stephan a real hard time. Stephan’s a guy who’s a black belt in jiu-jitsu but always seems to prefer to stand and trade with guys. I think Kyle will take a page out of Jon Jones’ book and take him down and score points and steal a win here.

Watch the UFC 139 Prelims Live on Rogers Sportsnet starting at 8 p.m. ET

Ryan Bader vs. Jason Brilz

A tough fight. Two really good wrestlers, with Bader coming off a quick submission loss. I’m going to go with Brilz in this one. He’s tough and I think he’ll grind this one out.

Michael McDonald vs. Alex Soto

I don’t know these guys so I’m going to pass.

Tom Lawlor vs. Chris Weidman

Weidman is such a good wrestler, and I think he’ll continue to put Lawlor on his back. But no doubt Lawlor will steal the show with his entrance.

Gleison Tibau vs. Rafael dos Anjos

Tibau is a huge guy for anybody to handle. Dos Anjos is a tall, skinny guy so I’ll pick Tibau by sheer size.

Miguel Torres vs. Nick Pace

I’ve always been a huge Miguel fan. But I like the Miguel of old as opposed to the new revised version from Tristar. I was just read an article talking about how they’re trying to make him a more conservative fighter and not as much of a brawler. I think that may be better for him as a fighter but as a fan I preferred the reckless Miguel of old. Either way, I’m picking him to win. He did say he spent some time down at Imperial Athletics with Rashad Evans and the guys and the only think they focus on there is knocking people out.

Seth Baczynski vs. Matt Brown

I enjoy watching Baczynski fight. Brown is coming off a win but was on the verge of being cut. Baczynski has a second kick at the can and I’m going with him.

Shamar Bailey vs. Danny Castillo

I think it’s a real stretch for Bailey to make 155 (and of course he missed by a couple pounds). He was really lean at 170 when he fought Ryan McGillivray earlier this year. He may have size on his side, but how much of a toll does it take on you to get down in weight. I’m going with Castillo.

Bonus: Bellator picks

Eddie Alvarez vs. Michael Chandler

One of my favourite fighters not in the UFC is Eddie Alvarez and he’s defending his belt Saturday night. I always expect a real, gritty, exciting fight from him. I expect him to defend his belt against Michael Chandler.

Hector Lombard vs. Trevor Prangley

I think they’re really having a hard time finding someone who wants to fight Lombard. He’s on a heck of a win streak. Bellator is a bit desperate to find anyone with a name to fight him and build him and make him more recognizable. That’s part of the reason why this fight’s at 195, because Prangley does a number of fights at 205.

Prangley’s great and it’s hard to bet against him but I think Lombard will come out and win in Lombard fashion with a vicious knockout.