Lang on NFL: Divisional playoff primer
Posted January 13, 2012 1:15 am.
This article is more than 5 years old.
New Orleans Saints @ San Francisco 49ers
Saturday, Jan.14, 4:30 p.m. ET
The Saints win if: Drew Brees and his offence can replicate the amazing numbers they put up in the Superdome outdoors at Candlestick Park. The last two games the Saints played outdoors they scored 22 and 20 points respectively against the Titans and Buccaneers. Meanwhile, the Saints have scored 45 points in each of the last three games they’ve played at home.
The Saints also win if they can unleash their secret weapon, Darren Sproles. With the 49ers focused on stopping the likes of Jimmy Graham and Marques Colston, Sproles will be a key in the Saints’ attack. One thing is for sure, Saints head coach Sean Payton has a healthy respect for the 49ers and their defence, which was ranked No. 1 in the NFL.
“I would say it’s a team that when you watch the film, they’re very good tacklers and they’re opportunistic,” he said.
The 49ers win if: Alex Smith and his offence can score touchdowns and not settle for field goals when they’re in the red zone. The 49ers are ranked 30th in the NFL in red zone offence. That’s a big reason why David Akers had so many opportunities to set the new single season record for field goals when he nailed 44.
The 49ers will also win if Frank Gore has a big day. Alex Smith is not the kind of quarterback that can out-duel Brees. So that means Gore will need to shoulder the load of the offence.
The other way the 49ers could pull out an upset is if Justin Smith and the rest of the defence can force the Saints into multiple three-and-outs. No defence has better team speed than the 49ers and they will need that speed to keep pace with the Saints’ high powered offence.
Intangibles: The Saints have scored at least 30 points in their last five playoff games. The 49ers have won 15 division titles since 1980, more than any other team in the NFL. San Francisco’s rookie linebacker Aldon Smith led the team with 14 sacks. The Saints have won six playoffs games in their franchise history; Sean Payton was the coach for five of them. San Francisco punter Andy Lee led the NFL with a 50.9-yard average. Along with Akers, Lee gives the 49ers a real advantage on special teams.
Who wins: There is so much to like about the 49ers this year. Jim Harbaugh should win coach of the year. Justin Smith should receive serious consideration for the defensive player of the year. And on and on it goes.
The one weak link with the 49ers, their lack of offensive firepower, will prove to be their undoing Saturday. Drew Brees and the Saints’ offence are just too good right now to be completely shut down. They won’t set records against the 49ers’ outstanding defence, but they will do enough to outscore anything that Alex Smith can put up on the scoreboard.
Prediction: New Orleans 27, San Francisco 22
Denver Broncos @ New England Patriots
Saturday, Jan. 14, 8:00 p.m. ET
The Broncos win if: They play the perfect game. So many things fell perfectly into place during last week’s win over the Steelers. The Broncos likely won’t be that lucky two weeks in a row.
The Broncos also win if they can prevent Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez from shredding their secondary. The Patriots do not have a stud running back they can rely on to carry the ball 30 times. What they do have is a tight end in Gronkowski that they employ like an M1 Abrams tank to overpower opposing teams. Like they do every week, the Patriots will be relying on the right arm and computer-like brain of Tom Brady to lead the way. The best way to kill a snake is to cut off the head. The best way to stop the Patriots is to knock out Brady.
The Patriots win if: They don’t allow Elvis Dumervil and Von Miller to get after Tom Brady. The Patriots’ offensive line needs to give Brady the time to set his feet in the pocket and make his reads. Having said that, Dumervil knows how hard it is to actually sack Brady
“The way he can elude tacklers in the pocket is why he’s one of the greatest quarterbacks,” he said.
In Week 15 the Broncos had two sacks, but that didn’t stop Brady from burning them for 320 yards and two touchdowns.”
The Patriots also win if they force Tim Tebow into making mistakes. In Week 15 the Patriots’ defence did a good job at putting pressure on Tebow and forcing him out of his comfort zone. That resulted in Tebow fumbling twice and unable to engineer a miracle comeback. Bill Belichick won’t make the same mistake the Steelers did last week; he will make sure to have at least one safety playing bacl to prevent Tebow from burning them with any deep passes to Demaryius Thomas.
Intangibles: With Gronkowksi’s record-setting season for a tight end people overlook the fact Wes Welker caught 122 passes for 1,569 yards this year. As great as the Patriots are, the fact remains they are “one and done” the last two years in the playoffs. Both those years, versus the Ravens and the Jets, they were the home team. The Broncos haven’t won a road playoff game since beating the Steelers in the AFC championship game back in January 1998. The Patriots have never beaten the Broncos in the post-season (0-2).
Who wins: No matter what you think of him, there can be no denying that “Tebowmania” is bigger than anyone could have predicted. Last week’s Wild Card win over the Steelers set television ratings records for CBS and this game is sure to break them. Tim Tebow is a great story and he has connected with a huge segment of the North American population. That being said, Tebow isn’t in the same league as Tom Brady — not by a long shot.
Tebow’s magic worked against an injury-depleted Steelers team. It won’t work this week. Brady and Belichick are on a mission to get off the playoff schneid. Their mission will be accomplished late Saturday night at Gillette Stadium.
Prediction: New England 34, Denver 23
Houston Texans @ Baltimore Ravens
Sunday, Jan. 15, 1:00 p.m. ET
The Texans win if: Arian Foster can pound out another 153 yards and two touchdowns like he did last week versus the Bengals. The Texans are hoping that Foster can do for them what John Riggins did for the Redskins in the 1982 playoffs. That year, Riggins could not be stopped as he led the Redskins to the Super Bowl. The reason T.J. Yates was able to have success throwing the ball down the field to Andre Johnson is because the Bengals were forced to load the box to stop Foster. The Texans have a very good offensive line and if they can find a way to control the line of scrimmage and allow Foster to run, the Texans might be able to pull off the upset.
The Ravens win if: If they stop Foster. That is the Ravens’ defensive game plan in one simple sentence. You stop Foster, you stop the Texans. The Ravens held Foster to 49 yards when they beat the Texans in Week 6.
The Ravens also win if Ray Rice is given the room to run. On top of being a very productive running back, Rice is also an excellent receiver. Joe Flacco needs to use Rice as his security blanket any time the Texans’ “Bulls on Parade” defence starts closing in on him. The Ravens will also win if Flacco doesn’t try to force things and turn the ball over. Flacco is 4-3 in the post-season and in those three losses he has thrown six interceptions.
Intangibles: Baltimore is Death Valley for opposing teams this year as the Ravens compiled a perfect 8-0 record at home. Ravens safety Ed Reed has seven interceptions in nine career playoff games. The Ravens haven’t won a home playoff game since Dec. 31, 2000. Ravens rookie receiver Torrey Smith averaged 16.8 yards a catch this season.
Who wins: The Ravens are a tough, well coached team. The team that has annually stood in their way in the playoffs, the Steelers, have been knocked
out. It was nice to see the Texans repay their loyal fans with a playoff win at Reliant Stadium. But this game won’t be kind to T.J. Yates and the Texans. Terrell “T-Sizzle” Suggs and the rest of the Ravens will be relentless as they assault the young Texans quarterback from every angle.
Prediction: Baltimore 23, Houston 16
New York Giants @ Green Bay Packers
Sunday, Jan. 15, 4:30 p.m. ET
The Giants win if: They stick to their old-school approach to football. The Giants are not going to beat the Packers in a shootout. But the Giants could try to physically assault the Packers on both sides of the line of scrimmage.
The Giants can also win if Eli Manning can avoid any interceptions. For all the yards they give up, the Packers’ defence led the NFL with 31 interceptions. The Giants can also win if either Victor Cruz or Hakeem Nicks can find a way to burn the Packers’ secondary with some big plays.
The Packers win if: Aaron Rodgers is given the time to weave his magic. Jason Pierre-Paul and the Giants can get after the quarterback and you can be sure their goal will be to hit Rodgers every chance they get. Blessed with receivers like Greg Jennings (who is healthy and will play), Jordy Nelson and Jermichael Finley, Rodgers has many weapons to work with.
The Packers will win if Rodgers can exploit the holes in New York’s secondary. Once the Packers’ offence gets rolling, it is tough to stop. The Packers will also win if B.J. Raji has a big game. The Giants will try to run the ball and Raji is in the middle of a Packers front seven that will be tasked at stopping them.
Intangibles: Eli Manning has thrown 11 touchdowns in the post-season, the most in franchise history. Aaron Rodgers is the only quarterback in the history of the NFL to throw for more than 4,000 yards and have six interceptions or less in a single season. Two of the oldest teams in the NFL, the Giants and the Packers first met in the post-season in the 1938 NFL championship game.
Who wins: I am more torn about this game than any other matchup. Before the start of the season I picked the Packers to beat the Patriots in the Super Bowl. But the Giants impressed me last week with their “punch you in the mouth” approach to playoff football. This will be the tightest of the four games and will likely come down to whoever has the ball last. The Giants will extract a heavy physical toll on the Packers. But in the end the best quarterback in the NFL, Aaron Rodgers, will find a way to lead Green Bay to victory.
Prediction: Green Bay 31, New York 30
