Showdown on MMA: UFC on FOX 2 breakdown

It’s that time once again — a major UFC event on Saturday night, so why not take a look at each bout to determine who will have “The Edge.”

These articles are some of my favourite to write as it forces me to analyze, on paper, how a fight may play out and I sincerely hope it helps you as well.

As always, and I apologize for sounding like a broken record, but as many of you have heard on “The Showdown” podcasts, I must throw out a caveat before I make any predictions: remember, I am not responsible for a fighter who shows up with a game plan that is a polar opposite of what we all expect.

What should happen, is often what we see on paper, but I cannot predict, for example, if a superior grappler decides to stand and trade with a superior striker. I cannot account for this type of risky behaviour.

With that being said, let’s take a look at who I believe will have “The Edge” at UFC on FOX: Evans vs Davis.

Main Card: airing on all four Sportsnet Regional Channels starting at 8pm EST / 5pm PST

Main Event: Rashad Evans vs Phil Davis

Striking: Evans

Wrestling: Davis

Submissions: Davis

Stamina: Similar

Elite Level Experience: Evans

Intangibles: Evans

Additional Thoughts: History has taught us that when two wrestlers are matched up, there’s a very good chance the bout will take place in the stand up realm. If Evans can avoid being taken down, or is able to stand back up (should he be taken down), look for him to score a KO or TKO victory. But if he cannot, Davis may shock many by pulling off a five round, ground-and-pound assault.

The Edge: Rashad Evans

Co-main Event: Chael Sonnen vs Michael Bisping

Striking: Bisping

Wrestling: Sonnen

Submissions: Sonnen

Stamina: Sonnen

Elite Level Experience: Sonnen

Intangibles: Sonnen

Additional Thoughts: Sonnen is a heavy favourite and I agree. Look for him to score his takedowns and ground-and-pound on his way to victory, be it by TKO, submission or decision. It should be noted that looking at Bisping’s resume, I can recall the vast majority of fans always pick him to lose, yet he often emerges victorious. So if he wins on Saturday night I will not be surprised.

The Edge: Chael Sonnen

Demian Maia vs Chris Weidman

Striking: Similar

Wrestling: Weidman

Submissions: Maia

Stamina: Similar

Elite Level Experience: Maia

Intangibles: Maia

Additional Thoughts: Weidman, the undefeated prospect is favoured over the MMA veteran Maia, and it’s partially surprising, but still understandable. Chris poses some serious problems for Maia especially with his superior wrestling. Both are ADCC veterans (Maia placed 2nd in 2005 and won it in 2007, while Weidman lost in the quarter finals in 2009). Pace and stamina will dictate how this bout will go down. With a full training camp, I would give the edge to Weidman, but the fact this bout came together less than two weeks ago, I will lean towards the vet.

The Edge: Demian Maia

Prelims will air nationally on Sportsnet ONE starting at 5 p.m. ET / 2 p.m. PT

Evan Dunham vs Nik Lentz

Striking: Dunham

Wrestling: Similar

Submissions: Dunham

Stamina: Similar

Elite Level Experience: Dunham

Intangibles: Dunham

Additional Thoughts: Lentz is a grinder and is very difficult to finish. His defence on the ground is stellar, so I see this one going the distance unless Dunham can catch him with some strikes in the stand up realm.

The Edge: Evan Dunham

Mike Russow vs Jon Olav Einemo

Striking: Russow

Wrestling: Russow

Submissions: Einemo

Stamina: Russow

Elite Level Experience: Russow

Intangibles: Russow

Additional Thoughts: It’s Russow, the local police officer who will be taking on the bad guy, Einemo. Russow, with the hometown support, should emerge victorious provided he choses not to engage with the Scandinavian on the mat. Einemo’s submissions are viscous, so there is no need for Mike to play with fire.

The Edge: Mike Russow

Cub Swanson vs George Roop

Striking: Roop

Wrestling: Swanson

Submissions: Swanson

Stamina: Similar

Elite Level Experience: Swanson

Intangibles: Roop

Additional Thoughts: Picking against Roop has done me no favours. There are variables as to why he should win, but I’m going on a gut feeling here.

The Edge: George Roop

Charles Oliveira vs Eric Wisely

Striking: Oliveira

Wrestling: Wisely

Submissions: Oliveira

Stamina: Similar

Elite Level Experience: Oliveira

Intangibles: Wisely

Additional Thoughts: Some of the tale of the tape info above is by the slightest of margins. This is Oliveira’s first fight at 145 pounds, and let’s remember, he started off his career in 2008 as a 170-pounder. How he deals with the weight cut is paramount to how he will perform on Saturday night. If he cannot recover, or miscalculates, Wisely may hand him his third loss inside the octagon.

The Edge: Charles Oliveira

Michael Johnson vs Shane Roller

Striking: Roller

Wrestling: Roller

Submissions: Roller

Stamina: Similar

Elite Level Experience: Roller

Intangibles – Roller

Additional Thoughts: Johnson has all the potential in the world, and has a chance to start building upon his name recognition from his second-place finish during his stint on The Ultimate Fighter 12, but this matchup with Roller has me thinking he will be 1-3 inside the Octagon come Sunday morning.

The Edge: Shane Roller

Joey Beltran vs Lavar Johnson

Striking: Beltran

Wrestling: Similar

Submissions: Johnson

Stamina: Beltran

Elite Level Experience: Beltran

Intangibles: Beltran

Additional Thoughts: Johnson has more than a puncher’s chance in this one, but it looks to me as if it’s going to be a typical Beltran bout: chip away, pound away, knock out his opponent in due time.

The Edge: Joey Beltran

Chris Camozzi vs Dustin Jacoby

Striking: Camozzi

Wrestling: Camozzi

Submissions: Camozzi

Stamina: Camozzi

Elite Level Experience: Camozzi

Intangibles: Camozzi

Additional Thoughts: Jacoby put up a great fight in his octagon debut against Clifford Starks, but ironically enough, he was given a tougher fight in his return bout to the organization. Camozzi is very underrated, and should prove to be too much for Dustin.

The Edge: Chris Camozzi