Bailão sees surge, Chow’s lead shrinks heading into election day: poll

Olivia Chow is still the clear frontrunner heading into Toronto’s mayoral byelection, but the latest poll shows her lead may not be as safe as it once was.

The latest survey from Forum Research, released on Sunday, suggests Ana Bailão may be seeing a surge due to an endorsement from former mayor John Tory.

Bailão is up seven points to 20 per cent support among decided voters — trailing Chow’s 29 per cent. Mark Saunders is in third holding at 15 per cent support.

Tory formally endorsed Bailão ahead of Monday’s byelection, saying the leader must be laser-focused on what’s best for the city. Tory resigned as the city’s mayor on February 10 after admitting to a months-long affair with a former staffer that ended earlier in 2023.

Bailão had not seen more than 13 per cent support in any of the previous Forum polls. She is the only top candidate who saw their support increase compared to last week’s poll.

“This is Chow’s third drop of 3 per cent in support in the last three weeks,” said Dr. Lorne Bozinoff, president of Forum Research. “This suggests she has been hemorrhaging approximately 0.5 per cent support each day for the last three weeks.”

“While Bailão’s surge will likely be too little, too late, it does represent the biggest one week gain for any candidate in the campaign and has clearly cemented Bailao’s position in second place. One wonders what would have happened if endorsements for Bailão had occurred a week earlier in the campaign.”

Latest survey from Forum Research, conducted on June 23, 2023.

Bailão, 46, was a close political ally of Tory’s during her time in office, often voting in line with him.

With a number of established candidates contesting this election, city hall watchers have speculated the winner could be elected with the lowest share of the popular vote since amalgamation. Tory’s 2014 win stands at the low watermark, when he captured 40 per cent of the vote.

The Forum poll was conducted on June 23 and surveyed more than 1,000 Toronto adults over the telephone.

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