Researchers taking COVID-19 data analysis into their own hands

Since April, independent researcher Nora Loreto has been diligently tracking every COVID-19 related death in Canada, and where those infections began.

“I cannot tell you how surprised I am that this list is tracked by me,” says Loreto.

The revelations are stark. Loreto has found that over 80 per cent of all deaths in Canada can be traced back to outbreaks in residential care settings.

That includes about 800 facilities that count among them long-term care homes, retirement residences, shelters, jails and prisons as well as hospitals.

It’s key data that isn’t being compiled or released by any public health agency in the country, and Loreto hopes the numbers will help inform policy decisions as a second wave batters the country.

“In Ontario, you can see a lot of facilities where people were sharing up to four people in the same room had higher numbers of deaths than in places where patients or residents were living one to a room,” says Loreto. “So that has major policy implications.”

But the stark reality of how the virus has disproportionately impacted marginalized communities is even more evident in her numbers. In a spreadsheet that she updates each day, she tracks the mortality rates of healthcare workers and those who have died in workplace outbreaks too. 

“What I am just so scandalized by is the overwhelming toll this virus has taken on racialized communities and especially Black communities,” she says. “The majority of people who have died in the healthcare system have been Black.”

Of the more than 10,000 Canadians who have died from COVID-19, she’s linked at least 8,100 to residential care.

Loreto isn’t alone in taking matters into her own hands when it comes to analyzing the vast amount of data being released by public health officials.

In an effort to learn even more about where COVID-19 is spreading, a team of researchers has created a global crowdsourced database of superspreader events, where 10 or more people are infected.

There are currently more than 1,500 such events listed worldwide.

Unsurprisingly in Canada, the vast bulk of spread happens at long term care homes, but there are also a number of large gatherings listed, like weddings and funerals.

They also include workplace and industrial outbreaks, for instance at meat processing plants.

But the data points to some key trends. For one, the vast majority of super-spreader events took place indoors rather than outdoors where people were confined together for a prolonged period of time. In countries other than Canada, many events also coincided with local flu seasons.

It also shows a key trend for industrial outbreaks – food processing plants are particularly vulnerable because temperatures are kept low to preserve food quality. That’s in contrast to other factories and plants where manufacturing isn’t temperature controlled.

The researchers behind this crowdsourced tracker say they hope to increase understanding of where these events typically occur– and with this data in hand, public health professionals and policymakers may sit up and prevent outbreaks from happening in the future.