Latest modelling suggests UK variant will soon ‘dominate’ province, health measures effective to date

Ontario released yet another round of COVID-19 modelling and projections on Thursday highlighting its strong focus on the B.1.1.7 variant first discovered in the United Kingdom, with health experts saying the strain could “soon dominate” the province.

Dr. Adalsteinn Brown says that while public health and safety measures are effective and working, the highly transmissible UK variant remains Ontario’s biggest obstacle in curbing the spread of the virus.

“The second story tells us about the threat that can undermine our success: The B.1.1.7 variant first identified the United Kingdom is spreading throughout Ontario. It spreads between people much faster than the current variant,” he said.

“There’s some evidence that it may also be more lethal. If the B.1.1.7 variant behaves as it did in the United Kingdom, cases will start to grow here again in late February or early March; that is unless we can limit the spread through public health measures. The UK example is important. In a matter of months, the B.1.1.7 variant from detection to the dominant strain.”

The science advisory table also touched on the recent decision by the Ford government to relax COVID-19 restrictions, warning that because of the presence of the UK variant in Ontario, cases could rise dramatically if public health restrictions are further eased.

Health officials say variants, including the ones originating from South Africa and Brazil, are likely between 5 percent and 10 percent of cases as of now. Brown says that Public Health measures appear to be effective against these strains.

Brown noted the B.1.1.7 variant is at least 30 percent higher in terms of transmissibility than the current, original strain.

On Thursday, a scientist in the UK said the variant first found in the British region of Kent is a concern because it could undermine the protection given by vaccines against developing COVID-19.

The BBC spoke with director of the COVID-19 Genomics UK consortium Sharon Peacock, who said vaccines were so far effective against the variants in the United Kingdom, but those mutations could potentially undermine the shots.

“What’s concerning about this is that the B.1.1.7. variant that we have had circulating for some weeks and months is beginning to mutate again and get new mutations which could affect the way that we handle the virus in terms of immunity and effectiveness of vaccines,” Peacock told the BBC.

Toronto Public Health (TPH) recently confirmed the first cases of the Brazilian and South African variant of the COVID-19 virus.

Officials said on Sunday that a patient who had recently travelled from Brazil has tested positive for the P.1 COVID-19 mutation. They remain hospitalized.

This case marked the first confirmed infection of the Brazilian variant in the province of Ontario.

In January, that round of modelling data predicted case counts would fall to somewhere between 1,000 and 2,000 new cases per day.

On Thursday, the modelling showed that with no restrictions in place, in a best-case scenario, Ontario could see roughly 2,000 cases a day by the end of March. In a worst-case scenario, Ontario could see around 6,000 new cases per day.

Hospitalizations and ICU occupancy across the province’s health care sector has improved along with long-term care, with a declining number of daily deaths in the facilities. Vaccinations are also on the rise as modelling showing that “aggressive vaccination and sticking with stay-at-home order will help avoid a third wave and a third lockdown.”

However, the number of deaths in nursing homes in the second wave of the pandemic has now drawn nearly even with the number of deaths in the facilities from the first wave.

The data comes as the province began a gradual reopening of its economy this week by lifting a stay-at-home order for certain areas, transitioning back to the colour-coded framework that will ease restrictions based on COVID-19 case counts in respective regions.

The Ford government’s state of emergency expired and was not reinforced on February 9.

Three Eastern Ontario regions entered the ‘green-prevent’ level on Wednesday.