Is this Doug Ford’s election to lose?

Ontario’s 43rd election is officially underway. It is the time leaders make bold promises that often appear to be sprinkled with fairy dust. How many of their platforms are affordable and actually deliver what they claim is the big question.

Will the PC’s pledge to build Highway 413 really save drivers time? Is the NDP dental plan the best way to spend $680 million in year one? Can the Liberals really put a hard cap on classes and hire 10,000 more teachers? Where will the money for all these big declarations come from? Those are just some of the issues for voters to decide.

Below are insights from several political observers and insiders on each party’s game plan under the agreement there would be no attribution.

STRATEGY

Polling suggests the outcome will be a PC win with a battle of the left for second place. As one Conservative observer told me, “Ford can sleep walk to victory as long as he doesn’t make a big mistake.” The Tories have already released their platform with a bombardment of announcements in the weeks leading up to the writ being drawn up and are now campaigning on their budget. The plan is to continue what they have been doing, focus on “building the province” and trying to show Doug Ford is the best leader to “get things done.”

The NDP are hoping to take at least 10 PC seats they narrowly lost in 2018. They include Ottawa West–Nepean where Jeremy Roberts won the riding by just 175 votes or 0.3%. The NDP openly say their goal is to reduce Ford to a minority, which means he wouldn’t be able to hold on to power because the other parties have already said they would not support his government. The NDP would hope to govern a coalition, but it means they must keep the 40 seats they held at dissolution which could be a challenge given the Liberals appear to be more in play this time around.

The Liberal path to victory is to present “fresh new ideas” that have all been tested with voters they are trying to woo, like the buck-a-ride for transit or bringing back Grade 13. The Grits are also hoping to inspire NDP voters to vote strategically so they can win back traditional Liberal seats in the 905 that they lost to the Conservatives in 2018. Regaining party status alone would be a success. Remember Doug Ford’s quip that they were the minivan party because they could all fit into one?

PROMISE TRACKER: What the Ontario parties are pitching on the campaign trail

THE LEADERS

Love him or hate him – there is rarely an in-between when it comes to politics – Doug Ford has changed. As his war room strategist, Melissa Lantsman, who is now an MP for Thornhill, once famously said, he was “a bull, who brings his own China shop with him wherever he goes.” Ford’s first two years as Premier were chaotic but the last two years of COVID appear to have softened him. He is more centrist, boosting minimum wage for example after he cancelled the previous Liberal government’s plan to raise it. As one insider explained Ford’s new style of governing, “he had no experience, it’s fair to say there was a learning curve.”

Andrea Horwath has the most experience as a leader on the campaign trail, this is her fourth try at becoming Premier. There was a point in the final weeks of the 2018 election when she appeared to be close to winning, even PC polling suggested that was the case, but voters decided in the end to go with Doug Ford, giving him a solid majority. The PCs benefited from the backlash against the Liberals but so did the NDP. It won’t be as easy for them this time. There have been quiet grumblings from some MPPs that perhaps it is time for a new leader. Her supporters though point to the fact she is well known and “has a style and energy people like.”

In a way Steven Del Duca has the biggest challenge, trying to increase seats after the Liberal party was decimated in 2018, ultimately losing party status. He also became leader just before COVID struck making it challenging for him to become a presence for voters. The Liberals though believe they can use that to their advantage, a “fresh new leader.” Del Duca has to convince voters the Liberals have been properly chastened and deserve another chance. Another challenge: Del Duca doesn’t have a seat. Rather than running in a safe, sure riding he is running against PC Minister Michael Tibollo.

Green Party leader Mike Schreiner, a party of one, is hoping to increase his team. He is likeable, smart, and a great communicator. As one top communications staffer for the PCs once said to me, “if he was leader of the Liberal party we would be in trouble.”

With just under four weeks until the election on June 2nd a lot can still happen, there are 26 more days on the campaign trail and two debates to come. But unless either the NDP or the Liberals can pull ahead Doug Ford will have an easy path to victory. As one NDP insider acknowledged, “of course we are worried about vote splitting, that’s how the Conservatives can come up the middle.” It’s tougher to beat a first term Premier, the last one in recent memory that didn’t win a second term was the NDP’s Bob Rae in 1995.