Science Table: Omicron in decline but hospitalizations to remain at prolonged peak
Posted February 1, 2022 6:21 am.
Last Updated February 1, 2022 3:33 pm.
Ontario’s COVID-19 Science Advisory Table released new projections on Tuesday suggesting the worst of the current Omicron wave has passed but warning of a jump in hospitalizations in the coming months.
The panel acknowledged difficulties of measuring the true spread of the virus due to the province’s changes in testing but says “other indicators suggest this phase of the Omicron wave has plateaued or is in decline.”
The group’s wastewater signal suggests cases peaked around Jan. 11. The wastewater signal is a weighted number of COVID-19 concentrations from treatment plants, pumping stations and sewersheds across all Ontario public health units.
The table estimates there have been between 1.5 and four million infections between Dec. 1 and now.
Ontario began loosening restrictions on Monday, the advisory table says the ease of restrictions will contribute to an increased spread and hospitalizations will rebound and continue at a prolonged peak through February and March.
“Today’s modelling confirms that the additional public health measures our government introduced have helped blunt transmission,” reads a statement from the Ministry of Health.
“While we know that the coming weeks will continue to be difficult for our hospital partners, hospitalizations are currently stable and given current trends, we are confident in our ability to ensure capacity so that patients can access the care they need.”
Hospitalizations already hit pandemic highs during the Omicron wave, peaking at over 4,100 earlier this month. The science table notes that hospitalizations have risen across all age groups.
Hospital numbers have been on decline in the last two weeks, dipping below 3,000 on Monday for the first time in three weeks. Ontario has reported more than 1,200 COVID-19 deaths since the start of the year.
Intensive care occupancy in the province also continues to be high and the panel says the strain there will also likely be prolonged through at least March.
The group is continuing to urge that vaccines will keep helping people stay out of the hospital and says increasing uptake will reduce the impact of the pandemic. Unvaccinated people currently six-times more likely of being in the hospital and 12 times more likely of ending up in the ICU.
Indoor dining at restaurants and bars, gyms and cinemas reopened at 50 per cent capacity on Monday after being shuttered for nearly a month. Limits on indoor gatherings have increased from five to 10 people, while outdoor gatherings go up from 10 to 25.
Related stories:
The projections will come hours before Premier Doug Ford makes an announcement alongside his new minister for long-term care, Paul Calandra. Ford is scheduled to speak at 11 a.m.
Ford said Monday that “All Ontarians are united in their desire to put this pandemic behind us and return to the life we knew before COVID-19.”
Ford’s recent comments are in line with Ontario’s chief medical officer of health Dr. Kieran Moore, who last week said it’s time for a balanced response to the virus and we need to “learn to live with COVID-19.”
It will mark Paul Calandra’s first news conference as minister of long-term care following the resignation of Rod Phillips last month. Calandra is stepping into the job amid rising COVID-19 outbreaks and deaths in long-term care homes across the province due to the Omicron variant.
Several restrictions remain in place for the long-term care sector. More than 56 per cent of the province’s long-term care homes were reporting virus outbreaks as of Monday and 129 deaths were reported among residents over the past week.
Resident cases have been close to the numbers seen in early 2020 when outbreaks and infections ravaged the province’s long-term care homes, prompting the province to request military assistance.
The province recently extended the deadline for workers to get mandatory third COVID-19 vaccine shots until March 14. Staff in the sector had initially been given until last Friday to get booster shots in order to stay on the job.
With files from the Canadian Press
