Anticipated cabinet shuffle may boost Liberal support among minority of voters, poll shows

With speculation rising that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will shuffle his cabinet before MPs return from their summer break, a new poll finds that changing the Liberal government’s front bench could swing some voters’ intentions.

Of those surveyed, 43 per cent said a cabinet shuffle could make them more likely to consider voting Liberal, according to the poll conducted for CityNews by Maru Public Opinion. Younger voters, a key demographic the Liberals have focused on over the last year, were the most likely to say a shuffle would influence their support.

But a full 57 per cent said a cabinet revamp wouldn’t likely change their ballot box intentions.

A cabinet retreat scheduled for the end of August in Halifax, N.S., has stirred rumours that Trudeau will reconfigure the cabinet in the coming weeks, to better position his government for an election expected some time next year.  In the past, Trudeau has made cabinet changes to ensure all his ministers are committed to running for the Liberals again.

“Doing a cabinet shuffle, in and of itself, doesn’t really create much of a motion among voters — they want to see the policies, they don’t want to see the wallpaper, they want to see the bread and butter on the table,” said Maru executive vice-president John Wright.

Wright noted those who said they are more likely to be moved by a shuffle may already be Liberal supporters.

“There is a narrow scope of people who are going to take a look at this but not many are going to be swayed from it because they want to see what is going to happen to the other members of cabinet and the prime minister himself.”

Transport Minister Pablo Rodriguez is among those who could be on the way out of cabinet. He is reportedly considering a bid for the leadership of the provincial Quebec Liberal Party and may not run in the next federal race, which could come any time after the NDP’s deal to support the Liberals on confidence votes in Parliament expires in June 2025.

Some also speculate that Trudeau’s office is unhappy with Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland’s promotion of the federal budget and its measures to address the affordability crisis. She could be moved to a different portfolio, possibly taking on more responsibilities for U.S.-Canada relations.

Trudeau has said publicly that he has confidence in Freeland as finance minister, but he may want to use her in a different role as Donald Trump seeks to return to the White House. She scored strong marks for dealing with contentious U.S.-Canada trade disputes during Trump’s first term and still has ties with many figures in the U.S. government.

Since Pierre Poilievre won the Conservative leadership in 2022, public opinion polling has shown the Liberals trailing the Conservatives by margins fluctuating between 15 and 20 percentage points.

After the Liberals lost a by-election in what was once considered the safe seat of Toronto – St. Paul’s in June, some Liberal MPs called for an immediate caucus meeting to discuss the party’s future. Trudeau hasn’t heeded that request yet but typically meets with his caucus before the House’s fall sitting.

Despite the media attention that cabinet shuffles attract, the Maru poll shows that many Canadians don’t have a strong knowledge of who is actually in cabinet.

About 63 per cent of those polled knew that Freeland serves in cabinet and another 52 per cent recognized the name of Foreign Affairs Minister Melanie Joly.

Freeland’s recognition level is highest in Alberta, her home province, but Wright says that may indicate that she’s well-known there but not necessarily popular.  Both Freeland and Joly are considered potential leadership contenders should Trudeau leave his job.

But the recognition level drops off sharply for even veteran Liberals at the cabinet table. Just 34 per cent know Public Safety Minister Dominic LeBlanc is part of cabinet. More than half of those surveyed either had not heard the names of Housing Minister Sean Fraser, Environment Minister Steven Guilbeault and Immigration Minister Marc Miller or didn’t know if they were cabinet ministers.

And 17 per cent, when prompted, wrongly believed that former astronaut Chris Hadfield is in cabinet. Another 12 per cent mistakenly thought Alberta Conservative MP Michelle Rempel Garner currently holds a cabinet post.  

Former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney, also touted as a potential Liberal party leader, is not in cabinet either and doesn’t hold a seat in the House of Commons, but 15 per cent of respondents think he is already a minister.  Still, another 51 per cent of respondents either didn’t know or didn’t recognize his name.

Trudeau made a minor change in his cabinet earlier this summer, after Labour Minister Seamus O’Regan announced he was leaving politics. His post was filled by former party whip Steven MacKinnon. 

The last major shuffle came in July 2023, when Trudeau named seven new faces to cabinet and moved 23 ministers into new portfolios.