Almanac Warns Of Another Cold And Snowy Winter Ahead
Posted August 25, 2008 12:00 pm.
This article is more than 5 years old.
With Labour Day weekend and the unofficial end of summer now in plain view, you might have started thinking about what the coming winter will be like.
And if you believe one admittedly questionable source, you may not like the answer.
There’s no forgetting last year, when it snowed mountains of flakes every three days and there was simply no way to clear the heavy, wet stuff off your driveway. Well according to the Farmer’s Almanac, get ready for a winter rerun.
The 192-year-old publication has issued is official prognostication for the U.S., which also features a spill over effect into Canada. In essence they say it will be colder and snowier than normal in our part of the world, with below average temperatures for most of the seemingly never-ending season.
“Numb’s the word,” is how editors phrase what they believe the winter of 2008-09 will be like. Their people are saying the Great Lakes and Northeast regions – which takes in Ontario – will experience above normal precipitation in January and February, with the latter month ‘unusually snowy.’
“This is going to be catastrophic for millions of people,” warns almanac editor Peter Geiger.
What does the publication, which is different than the Old Farmer’s Almanac, base its winter look-ahead on? It’s relying on a man with the unlikely name of Caleb Weatherbee, who uses a ‘secret formula’ based on sunspots, planetary positions and movement of the tides to plot what’s coming two years in advance.
And publishers also say they’ve received numerous emails from readers that supposedly point to early signs of nature’s intentions.
So how much of this stuff can you actually believe? The Almanac claims it has an 80-85 per cent accuracy rate. And then there’s the evidence that the winter weather pattern of last year really didn’t change much in the summer.
It started snowing in October, and it seemed like there was a big storm every three days. Two seasons later, the temperatures were a lot warmer but it also seemed like it rained non-stop with a storm, yes, every three days.
Could they be right and should you book your ticket for a 6-month stay in Florida now? Not yet, say meteorologists, who use far more scientific methods.
While Environment Canada has yet to issue its full winter prediction (and remember, experts there admit they got this soggy summer’s long range outlook very wrong) a very early guess is suggesting temperatures near normal for the period with precipitation below average.
The U.S. Weather Service agrees you can’t put any stock in the Almanac’s forecast – especially one prepared two years in advance. “Of course it’s possible to prepare a forecast with any lead time you like,” agrees Ed O’Lenic of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. “Whether or nor that forecast has any accuracy or usable skill is another question.”
For the record, winter officially begins on December 21 st and ends on March 20 th.
Approximate averages for the season as recorded at Pearson International Airport are as follows:
December
Temperature: -2.9C
Snow: 29.2cm
January
Temperature: -6.3C
Snow: 31.1cm
February
Temperature: -5.4C
Snow: 22.1cm
March
Temperature: -0.4C
Snow: 19.2cm
So should you take any of this half-a-year-in-advance stuff seriously? Consider this: the long range forecast for the holiday weekend ahead is calling for sunny skies and temperatures in the mid-20s, the perfect way to end summer. But forecasters note it’s too soon to completely promise that will happen and things can easily change before then. And that’s only a week away.
In the meantime, now might be a good time to remember where you left that shovel.
Check the seven day forecast here.
