Possible Swine Flu Pandemic Scenarios Go From No Real Effect To Severe
Posted April 30, 2009 12:00 pm.
This article is more than 5 years old.
When it comes to the swine flu and its effects, there are no guarantees. The disease could spread rapidly and prove to be a killer. Or it could simply run its course for a few weeks and disappear.
As more cases are confirmed around the world, The World Health Organization isn’t taking any chances, elevating its alert to phase 5, the highest level before an actual pandemic is declared.
Here’s a look at the possible scenarios of what could still be to come, depending on how the situation plays out.
No Pandemic
The best hope. It could turn into a large and very brief scare, with the disease simply petering out. The fact that this is a mutated version of the influenza strain means we don’t yet know a lot about it. Some simply lose their potency, while others grow stronger. The disease could wind up losing its ability to transmit itself easily from one person to another or – as has so far been the case in every country but Mexico – it could produce just a mild illness and a few deaths, then vanish. Regular flu kills between 250,000 and 500,000 worldwide every year.
Reappearing Pandemic
History shows we’ve been here before. The 1918 Spanish Flu, which took 40 million lives and is the worst flu outbreak of its kind in modern history, seemed to disappear quite suddenly during the summer months. But it reappeared with a vengeance in the winter, taking a grim new toll. Some flu strains often seem to go away, only to return with the change of seasons. Depending on how long this one lasts, we could see the same scenario repeat itself.
Mild Pandemic
This is a serious outbreak but not quite as bad as the 1918 situation. Thousands or even millions of people around the world would get sick, and there could be a significant death toll. But like the 1968 outbreak of Hong Kong flu, the infection and recovery rate could be lessened by intervention with modern antiviral drugs and other newly implemented techniques designed to staunch the spread.
Even a mild pandemic would have an effect on everyday life, with disruptions to travel and trade and the possibility that public gathering places – like schools, movie theatres, restaurants and more – could be closed until the threat passes. This scenario has already come to pass in Mexico and there’s no way of knowing how long it might last.
There’s also concern about the capability of hospitals to care for all the potential patients if the strain turns serious, with health care providers struggling to maintain their own well being and treat a major influx and ever growing number of patients.
Severe Pandemic
The worst case scenario and the one health officials worldwide are doing their best to prevent. The flu strain mutates, turning a mild form of the disease into something far more serious. Millions of people are sick, as the illness takes its toll spreading into communities and cities around the world.
High death tolls would be expected and up to 40 per cent of the workforce would be out sick at any one time, further endangering not only lives but the already shaky economy. Those well enough to work might still have to take time off to care for ill family members and with schools closed, there’s no guarantee what those well enough to do their jobs would do with their kids.
City infrastrucutres could break down and there could be power outages, crumbling roads and other vital services could be disrupted, without enough people to fix the problems.
It’s hoped modern drugs and new preventative measures will help avoid this scenario, which occurred during the 1918 outbreak, when vaccines and knowledge about how disease is spread weren’t very advanced.
Previous Pandemics
Name: Spanish Flu
Years: 1918-1919
Where it started: Unclear
Influenza type: H1N1
Estimated death toll: 20-50 million
Age groups most affected: Young adults
Name: Asian Flu
Years: 1957-1958
Where it started: Southern China
Influenza type: H2N2
Estimated death toll: 1-4 million
Age groups most affected: Children
Name: Hong Kong Flu
Years: 1968-1969
Where it started: Southern China
Influenza type: H3N2
Estimated death toll: 1-4 million
Age groups most affected: All ages
Source: World Health Organization
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Previous pandemics have been deadly
