Shaw on Fantasy MLB: Two of a kind
Posted June 10, 2011 11:45 am.
This article is more than 5 years old.
Asking what do Jason Bay and Justin Morneau have in common is a loaded question.
The two baseball stars have a lot in common! They are both from British Columbia. They have both enjoyed productive careers as sluggers. They both moved into spacious ballparks last season, and to make matters even worse they both endured concussions that are hindering their careers.
Justin Morneau, 1B, Twins
The 30-year-old Morneau was once on top of baseball. He picked up the AL MVP Award in 2006 with 34 home runs, 130 RBI, and a .321 average. He then produced three straight All-Star caliber seasons before enduring a concussion on a play at second base last season.
When Morneau finally called it a season in 2010 he had a sensational .345 average with 18 home runs and 56 RBI in exactly a half a season’s worth of games. In other words, Morneau was once again playing at an MVP level.
What makes these figures really stand out is that the Twins moved into a pitcher-friendly ballpark last season. Target Field did have an impact on the hulking lefty. Morneau’s home average was impressive at .316, but just 22 per cent of his home runs were slugged in front of the home crowd.
This season has been dreadful for the nine-year veteran. Morneau’s average is just .225 with a pedestrian .338 slugging percentage. He has been at his worst against southpaws hitting just .156 with four RBI. Compare that to last season when Twins slugger hit .325 with seven home runs against left-handers.
Target Field is also a factor once again. All four home runs have come outside of Minnesota. On the other hand, Morneau is hitting just .192 on the road with a .255 on base percentage.
So the big question is whether Morneau will be able to bounce back from the struggles?
The answer is yes. After all, Morneau has a few temporary obstacles working against him. He is still recovering from last year’s injury. Respected sabermetrician Jeff Zimmerman has found that one year is needed for a Major League player to fully recover from a concussion.
Additionally, the Twins have been plagued by injuries, leaving Morneau vulnerable in the lineup. The good news is that Delmon Young has returned from the disabled list and Joe Mauer is on the mend.
It’s a fine time for fantasy managers to invest in Morneau while his stock is at an all-time low.
Jason Bay, OF, Mets
With the Pirates and Red Sox, Jason Bay was a perennial star offering great power and solid run production. However, the 32-year-old outfielder who has four seasons of 30-plus home runs under his belt chased the money in New York, signing with the Mets for a $68 million deal over four years.
While the Mets afforded Bay an opportunity to team up with All-Stars Jose Reyes, Carlos Beltran, David Wright, Johan Santana and Francisco Rodriguez, it also placed Bay in one of the largest ballparks in baseball.
The decline over the last two seasons has been startling. After racking up 36 home runs with 119 RBI for the Red Sox in 2009, Bay has combined for eight home runs and 57 RBI in 134 games with the Mets.
Similar to Morneau, Bay has endured some bad luck. Carlos Beltran did not play with Bay last season because of injuries. Plus, Bay had a concussion of his own in a nasty collision with the leftfield wall in Citi Field.
The concern for Mets fans is that Bay’s struggles began before he suffered the injury. After all, Bay was healthy before the All-Star break last season and yet all he managed was six home runs with a .265 average.
Bay also can’t lay the blame on Citi Field either, as he hit just three home runs at home as well as on the road last season. In fact, Bay had greater success hitting at home to the tune of a .459 slugging percentage compared to just .355 on the road.
Once again Bay is hitting the ball better at home this season. His .243 average and .343 slugging compare well to his .171 average and horrendous .214 slugging percentage on the road.
At this point, the Mets have to place Bay amongst their many regrets in recent seasons. He is approaching his mid-30s and has never been known for his defense either.
Morneau and Bay may have many similarities. However, when it comes to their career projections at the moment, there appears to be some light at the end of the tunnel for Morneau, while Bay will have to overcome the odds to return to his All-Star form.
