Showdown on UFC 143: Who has The Edge?
Posted February 3, 2012 4:54 pm.
This article is more than 5 years old.
It’s that time once again — a major UFC event on Saturday night, so why not take a look at each bout to determine who will have “The Edge.”
These articles are some of my favourite to write, as it forces me to analyze, on paper, how a fight may play out and I sincerely hope it helps you as well.
As always, and I apologize for sounding like a broken record, but as many of you have heard on “The Showdown” podcasts, I must throw out a caveat before I make any predictions: remember, I am not responsible for a fighter who shows up with a game plan that is a polar opposite of what we all expect.
What should happen, is often what we see on paper, but I cannot predict, as an example, if a superiour grappler decides to stand and trade with a superior striker. I cannot account for this type of risky behaviour.
With that being said, let’s take a look at who I believe will have “The Edge” at UFC 143: Diaz vs. Condit.
Main Card
Main Event: Nick Diaz vs. Carlos Condit for the interim welterweight title
Striking: Diaz
Wrestling: Condit
Submissions: Diaz
Stamina: Diaz
Elite Level Experience: Diaz
Intangibles: Similar
Additional Thoughts: Prior to Diaz’ bout with BJ Penn, I would have leaned towards Condit, but after seeing first-hand, in person, what Nick brings to a fight, my mind changed. Condit is one power shot away from derailing the Diaz train, but I believe Nick’s pace will eventually catch up with Carlos. It’s a hard fight to pick, as I believe there is only but a razor thin line of difference between the two.
The Edge: Nick Diaz
Co-Main Event: Roy Nelson vs Fabricio Werdum
Striking: Similar
Wrestling: Nelson
Submissions: Werdum
Stamina: Similar
Elite Level Experience: Werdum
Intangibles: Nelson
Additional Thoughts: Great fight and like Nelson, underappreciated. These two will bang away, and I believe Roy should be able to survive any ground assault from Werdum. Look for Roy’s boxing to be the difference.
The Edge: Roy Nelson
Josh Koscheck vs. Mike Pierce
Striking: Koscheck
Wrestling: Similar
Submissions: Koscheck
Stamina: Similar
Elite Level Experience: Koscheck
Intangibles: Koscheck
Additional Thoughts: Koscheck’s explosiveness may be a handful for Pierce to deal with. Josh may not use his wrestling as much as people predict for this fight. While Pierce told me Koscheck’s biggest striking weapon is his overhand right that everyone can see coming from a mile away, the question is, will Mike be able to see it, stop it, avoid it or deal with it, should it land. Great scrap, but only one man can win. Will Kos stay relevant, or will it be Mike Pierce’s coming out party? The latter would be great to see, but…
The Edge: Josh Koscheck
Renan Barao vs. Scott Jorgensen
Striking: Similar
Wrestling: Jorgensen
Submissions: Barao
Stamina: Similar
Elite Level Experience: Jorgensen
Intangibles: Barao
Additional Thoughts: This is another candidate for fight of the night. Barao is on an unbeaten streak of 28 fights. That’s incredible momentum and confidence that Jorgensen will try to halt. Jorgensen can do it, and do it well, but I believe Barao has a date with destiny, otherwise known as a title shot in the very near future.
The Edge: Renan Barao
Ed Herman vs. Clifford Starks
Striking: Similar
Wrestling: Similar
Submissions: Herman
Stamina: Herman
Elite Level Experience: Herman
Intangibles: Herman
Additional Thoughts: The UFC matchmaking team see something in Starks that I haven’t seen yet. Pitting him vs. Herman shows a fair amount of faith in him, but I believe it’s too much of a step up in competition.
The Edge: Ed Herman
Prelims (will air nationally on all four Sportsnet regional channels starting at 8 p.m. ET / 5 p.m. PT)
Dustin Poirier vs. Max Holloway
Striking: Poirier
Wrestling: Poirier
Submissions: Poirier
Stamina: Poirier
Elite Level Experience: Poirier
Intangibles: Poirier
Additional Thoughts: I cannot say that I’m a fan of this fight. I not only wish Holloway the best of luck, I hope he proves me wrong…it will put a satisfying smile on my face. Poirier is a serious contender at 145 pounds, while Max is still fairly green, the youngest guy on the UFC roster, and only four fights into his career.
The Edge: Dustin Poirier
Alex Caceres vs. Edwin Figueroa
Striking: Figueroa
Wrestling: Similar
Submissions: Similar
Stamina: Similar
Elite Level Experience: Caceres
Intangibles: Caceres
Additional Thoughts: Another stellar fight on this card. This one has all the makings of a barn burner. Both guys bring it. Caceres has looked fantastic at 135 pounds, while Figueroa is an underrated talent at bantamweight. This one is going to be fun, but I think Bruce Leroy’s evolution will see him secure another “W.”
The Edge: Alex Caceres
Matt Brown vs. Chris Cope
Striking: Brown
Wrestling: Brown
Submissions: Brown
Stamina: Brown
Elite Level Experience: Brown
Intangibles: Brown
Additional Thoughts: I’ve made the mistake of picking against Cope a few times in the past. He’s served me my fair share of humble pie. But against Brown, I see a matchup that doesn’t favour Chris. If he cannot rock Matt early, or chop away at “The Immortal,” he may be in for a long night.
The Edge: Matt Brown
Matt Riddle vs. Henry Martinez
Striking: Martinez
Wrestling: Riddle
Submissions: Martinez
Stamina: Similar
Elite Level Experience: Riddle
Intangibles: Riddle
Additional Thoughts: Martinez is taking this fight on very short notice. He is also an undersized 170-pounder. He naturally fights at 155 pounds, and once competed at 145 pounds. Riddle is an octagon vet that may be too much for Martinez to handle, BUT Henry is a member of Team Jackson. That will make this interesting.
The Edge: Matt Riddle
Facebook fights
Rafael Natal vs. Michael Kuiper
Striking: Kuiper
Wrestling: Kuiper
Submissions: Natal
Stamina: Natal
Elite Level Experience: Natal
Intangibles: Natal
Additional Thoughts: Kuiper is an unknown Dutch commodity with a black belt in Judo, and fists/kicks that have a way of landing hard. Natal though has competed on the big stage before, and may be able to use this on the octagon newcomer. Bombs will fly in this one, and I like Kuiper in the standup; not so much on the ground vs. Natal’s BJJ black belt.
The Edge: Rafael Natal
Stephen Thompson vs. Dan Stittgen
Striking: Thompson
Wrestling: Stittgen
Submissions: Stittgen
Stamina: Thompson
Elite Level Experience: Similar
Intangibles: Thompson
Additional Thoughts: Stephen (The Wonderboy) Thompson competed for me in September of 2005 at APEX: Undisputed. His karate and kickboxing is unmatched in MMA. Don’t take my words for it, but you must take Georges St-Pierre’s, who often states “Stephen is the best karate striker in MMA,” and often brings Thompson to TriStar in Montreal whenever the champ is preparing for a fight. Stittgen will be in big trouble if he cannot take Thompson down to the ground. This fight has highlight reel kicks written all over it.
The Edge: Stephen Thompson
Note: Other intangibles could include “quality of training partners”, “in prime of career”, “facing a fighter in twilight of career”, “opponent injured recently”, “facing a fighter who is making his octagon debut”, “facing a fighter who is taking the bout on short notice”, etc.
