Ontario COVID wastewater data suggests up to 100K daily cases: science table director

Ontario's real daily COVID-19 case count "has never been as high as right now," Dr. Peter Juni of the Ontario COVID-19 Science Table tells CityNews. He adds people's behaviours have changed so much recently that previous modelling no longer applies.

The scientific director of Ontario’s COVID-19 science advisory table says wastewater triangulation data suggests that currently, there could be up to 100,000 new cases in the province each day.

“We have more infections than we’ve ever seen in this province based on what we see in our wastewater,” Dr. Peter Jüni told CityNews in an interview Wednesday afternoon.

“In terms of infection, we have never been as high as right now during the entire pandemic.”

When asked what’s behind the high indicator, he said a change in behaviour in people returning to pre-pandemic levels of interaction and activity and the formal end of mask mandates are factors.

“The mask mandates were lifted early in the absence of wastewater data suggesting that it would be stable enough. Obviously, we weren’t stable enough for that now in hindsight,” Jüni said.


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“I think the challenge right now is because of the chosen communication strategy. A lot of people just went back to normal or nearly normal and what we’re now seeing is explosive growth.”

Despite the alarming increase in daily cases, he said this sixth wave wouldn’t have as severe an impact on the health care system given a “wall of immunity” built up through vaccination.

“Given the amount of infections happening, we will have a lower amount of people admitted to the hospital. That’s the good news. But remember we were there before,” Jüni said, referring to the past Omicron surge.

He went on to say he still has considerable concern for health care workers, who might be sidelined due to contracting COVID or burnout.


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According to the Ontario government’s data reporting on Wednesday, 1,074 patients were in hospitals across the province on Tuesday because of COVID-19, with 168 people in intensive care units. There were 1,091 people in hospitals, and 173 were in ICUs on that day, but ICU admissions have been cited as a lagging indicator due to the progression of the virus.

Jüni called for broader uptake once again when it comes to wearing masks, and in the absence of a mandate, he called on the Ontario government to provide strong masking recommendations.

“The only thing that would make a difference is that if people start to mask up again consistently,” he said, adding the full science table hasn’t made a formal recommendation to the government yet.

Meanwhile, the Ontario government outlined its criteria for expanding access to fourth COVID-19 vaccine doses Wednesday morning.

As of 7 a.m. on Thursday, people who are 60 and older, as well as Indigenous individuals and non-Indigenous people 18 and older who live in the household, will be able to book a vaccine online or call the provincial vaccine contact line at 1-833-943-3900.

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