New poll suggests Ontario PCs heading for another majority win

It appears the Progressive Conservatives are well on their way to another majority win in the upcoming Ontario provincial election.

A recent poll from Abacus Data surveyed 1,500 eligible voters and suggests the Doug Ford-led PCs will likely form a majority government in June, holding a nine-point lead over the second-place Liberals.

“The PCs have a wide lead in vote intention, have the most popular leader, and own or are competitive on the top issues on voters’ minds,” says Abacus CEO David Coletto.

“If nothing changes in the opinion environment between now and early June, the PCs should win another majority.”

Among the survey of voters, 38 per cent said they would vote for the PCs if the election were held now, compared to 29 per cent for the Liberals, and 22 per cent for the NDP.

Regionally, the Liberals lead in the City of Toronto (42 per cent) but the PCs have the most support when expanded to the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (40 per cent).

The poll suggests Ontarians are not as hungry for change as they were before the 2018 provincial election. At that time, 63 per cent of respondents said they “definitely” wanted a change from the Kathleen Wynne Liberal government. In the recent poll, less than half (48 per cent) expressed the same sentiment towards the Ford PCs.

Not surprisingly, the Liberals and NDP split the most support among voters who say they want change. Approximately one-in-five respondents said they “definitely” want the incumbent Ford government re-elected.

The PCs have also widened their lead since the last Abacus poll in April. The party is up two points compared to the Liberals who are down three points.

Doug Ford still proves to be a polarizing figure by leading the three main party leaders with the most positive impressions (38 per cent) and negative impressions (38 per cent) among eligible voters. Ford also leads Liberal Leader Steven Del Duca and NDP Leader Andrea Horwath when it comes to which leader voters think have the most leadership traits.

“Both leaders, for different reasons, remain blank slates for millions of Ontarians who either don’t know them (Del Duca) or don’t have strong views (Horwath),” says Coletto.

He believes either leader could shift public perception if they perform well during the debates.

The poll also asked voters about their concerns heading into the election, with reducing the cost of living coming up as a top issue for more than half of voters (59 per cent).

Voters chose the PCs as the party most-suited to deal with the cost of living issues, with 41 per cent believing they could best deal with the problem, 18 per cent more than the Liberals or NDP.