Why an RCMP investigation is bad timing for Ford government

Premier Doug Ford learned this week his government is now the focus of an RCMP investigation into the Greenbelt land swap. That is likely to make it tougher for the provincial Conservatives to weather the scandal and still win the next election.

The investigation comes on the heels of Ontario Auditor General Bonnie Lysyk’s report which found more than 90 per cent of the land removed from the Greenbelt favoured developers with ties to then-housing minister Steve Clark’s chief of staff, Ryan Amato, and the property owners stood to net $8.3 billion as a result of the swap.

Both Clark and Amato have since resigned in the wake of Lysyk’s report and one in which the province’s integrity commissioner found the housing minister violated ethics rules.

If the RCMP decides to lay criminal charges, it could come at the worst possible time for Doug Ford.

“These investigations usually take about a year, maybe a year and a half. That puts you right in the middle of the provincial election cycle for the next provincial election,” explained Bob Richardson, president and founder of Hammersmith Consulting and a former Liberal chief of staff. “It’s very difficult to do because you don’t control it in any way, shape or form.”

And it could get even worse. The Auditor General’s office is now launching an investigation into Ministerial Zoning Orders (MZO) which allow the government to overrule local municipalities and push through development – whether they like it or not.

“Typically the previous government would do one or two MZOs a year, so it was a very infrequently used tool,” said Green Party Leader Mike Schreiner. “This government in five years has done close to a hundred, I mean it’s unprecedented the number of MZOs this government is putting forward and it’s all about land grabs for Ford-connected speculators.”

The next election isn’t until June 2026 but everything Ford does between now and then will face even greater scrutiny, including Highway 413 which would cut through part of the Greenbelt and farmland. There’s also the redevelopment of Ontario Place, which includes giving a controversial 99-year lease to an Austrian company to build a spa on public land and also includes moving The Science Centre to the waterfront.

Perhaps the most damaging of all to the premier is his promise he would be different and banish political elites and insiders.

“I think it’s obvious when you look at Doug Ford he’s a man who looks tired and worn down. He needs to find a way to get his mojo back and deliver on the get it done mandate he ran on,” says Jamie Ellerton, a founding partner at public relations firm Conaptus.

“Hypocrisy is the kryptonite for all politicians. It’s one thing to ride a populist wave and use flowery rhetoric opposing corrupt insiders on your way up but if you’re not minding your own affairs that stand to scrutiny it starts to chip away at that trust and confidence.”

On Monday when the legislature resumes at Queen’s Park, the government is promising to table legislation that will return the land it removed back into the Greenbelt and add an extra layer of protection by codifying the boundaries. It’s an attempt to mitigate the political damage with voters – but that will be overshadowed by the RCMP investigation.