2024 U.S. election: Why congressional and state races matter, and how it impacts governing

Throughout the past year there hasn’t been a day without a U.S. election headline or story involving Joe Biden, Kamala Harris or Donald Trump, but as Americans vote on Tuesday, politicians and experts say congressional and down-ballot races are vital too.

On Monday, Ontario Premier Doug Ford referenced all the races in a video appealing for continued cooperation regardless of the outcome while touting trade agreements signed with several governors in recent years.

“The upcoming U.S. presidential and congressional elections will have an enormous impact on the future of our province,” he said, adding “Ontario jobs depend” on working together.

“If Ontario was a standalone country, we’d be America’s third-largest trading partner in the world. We’re the number one export destination for 17 U.S. states and number two export destination for another 11 U.S. states.”

Using international trade as an example, federal responsibilities lie with the executive (the president) and legislative (congress) branches.

While the U.S. president appoints a trade representative to coordinate and develop international trade policies, they must be confirmed by a majority of the U.S. Senate. However, both the House of Representatives and the Senate can vote on legislation that may directly and indirectly affect trade.

Meanwhile, each state and its governor can set up side initiatives related to trade too.

In addition to the presidential election on Tuesday, there are many other races to keep an eye on.

U.S. election will see new term for House of Representatives

Outside of the race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, most will likely be waiting to see what the new House of Representatives will look like as it could hugely impact the incoming president’s ability to implement their agenda.

As of Monday, there were 220 Republicans and 212 Democrats in the chamber. There were three vacancies after two Democratic representatives died and a Republican representative resigned. In order to form a majority in the upcoming 119th Congress, a party must have 218 of the 435 seats.

The slim majority proved difficult for Republicans starting at the beginning of 2023. It took a historic 15 rounds of voting for Kevin McCarthy to be named House speaker.

“Because of the hard-right Freedom Caucus … they’ve got enough votes to be a real veto power within the Republican Party,” Melissa Haussman, a retired Carleton University professor, told CityNews.

Several members were able to pressure McCarthy to cave to demands such as allowing a single member to call for a vote that could allow for his removal. Nearly 10 months later, conservative members of the party along with Democrats voted to remove him — a first in American history. After weeks of chaos, Mike Johnson became the new House speaker.

“The most recent session of Congress has been the least productive in the last 50 years,” Haussman said.

If a president’s party has control of the U.S. House of Representatives, it could make trying to pass a legislative agenda easier. Members of the House have the ability to propose and pass bills involving spending and revenue as well as impeach officials in the federal government. In the event of an electoral college tie, it would also fall to the incoming House of Representatives to elect a president.

However, with House elections every two years (the cycles in the middle of a president’s term are referred to as midterms) often means splitting a focus between governing and campaigning.

“It’s really a bit nuts because in addition to legislating, the people who are in Congress are what’s called dialling for dollars nights after their congressional sessions,” Haussman said.

Public opinion polling projecting control of the House has been mixed, but there are hopes on both sides of the aisle.

“I think the House is more important (in reference to congressional elections) and I think that is going to flip in our favour. We don’t need the house that we have right now that kills every bill,” Lee Strickland, chair of Democrats Abroad Toronto, recently told CityNews.

If the Democrats won the majority, House minority leader Hakeem Jeffries would likely become the new House speaker.

“Congressional candidates are in a lot of trouble in Florida right now. If they’re Democrats, they’re really running for their lives and it was always an easy run for them,” Georganne Burke, the Canada chapter lead with Republicans Overseas, recently said, suggesting the party could keep control of the House.

Third of U.S. Senate seeing races in 2024

While all seats in the House of Representatives are up for grabs in the U.S. election, that’s not the case for the Senate.

Senators serve six-year terms and the terms of office are staggered. A rotating third of the Senate seats see election races every two years.

The current standings in the Senate are precarious with 50 Republicans, 48 Democrats and two independent senators who caucus and typically vote with the Democrats. Throughout the past couple of years, Vice President Kamala Harris appeared in her dual role as president of the Senate to cast tie-breaking votes.

Class one senate seats are up for election and re-election on Tuesday with the majority (19) currently held by Democrats, offering more chances to lose the razor-thin edge the party has had in the Senate. Ten Republican seats are facing contests along with four independents (senators from Arizona and West Virginia were previously Democrats and became independents).

Senate races are happening this cycle in battleground states like Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.

When asked for her U.S. election predictions for the Senate, Haussman passed.

“I can’t really make a prediction. I think it would be a fool’s errand to do so because so much of this depends on the power of the states, the towns, the counties in terms of whose votes get counted,” she said.

The importance of state, local election results

Another piece of the broader political puzzle in the United States is how voting for state and local officials along with special propositions can have national impacts.

A majority of the 50 state legislatures in the U.S. oversee drawing up the boundaries for congressional districts, and eventual redistricting. With state Democratic and Republican parties, there’s the potential for gerrymandering (the manipulation of boundaries in favour of one party over another).

“As Karl Rove, who worked for George Bush, said, ‘He who controls the state legislatures, controls the U.S. House,” Haussman said, adding Republicans have had an edge when it comes to redistricting since the 2010 Census.

Unlike Canada where there is a federal body (Elections Canada) to oversee national elections, in the U.S. each state has its own way of conducting elections. The only uniformity federally in the U.S. is the Electoral College.

With 50 states and 50 sets of election rules, the politicians elected to the executive and legislative branches of each state could shape elections.

After the 2020 U.S. election which saw Donald Trump lose the presidency to Joe Biden, it brought increased attention and scrutiny to voting procedures in several states.

There are other responsibilities that fall under the purview of states. If there’s a vacancy in the U.S. Senate, it often falls to state governors (empowered by state legislatures) to name a replacement to finish the term or to call a special election. But when it comes to filling a vacancy in the House of Representatives, each state can have different rules.

“There’s a real separation of powers in the U.S., so that means that the down-ballot really, really matters in the U.S.,” Burke said.

“Tip O’Neill (former Democratic House speaker) wisely said a long time ago, all politics is really local and we should keep that in mind, including the Senate and the Congress.”

“Down-ballot is important because state legislators determine how voting occurs in that state, and we got to make sure the right people are there to permit people who are eligible to vote to be able to vote,” Strickland added.