Canada braces for impact of U.S. election on immigration

As Americans head to the polls, Canadian officials and immigration experts are closely watching for potential impacts on Canada’s immigration policies. Canada’s border with the United States, the longest undefended border globally, reflects a relationship that significantly influences both countries policies, especially around immigration.

According to Dr. Don Abelson, a political science professor at McMaster University, Canadian policymakers are acutely aware of how U.S. immigration decisions, especially under a Trump administration, could put pressure on Canada’s immigration system.

“Canada is certainly concerned about the thousands of asylum seekers who might enter the United States and then decide it’s probably better for them to continue moving north,” Abelson said.

Abelson explained that if Donald Trump were re-elected, his aggressive stance on immigration and mass deportations could force Canada to prepare for increased numbers of asylum seekers seeking refuge across the border.

According to the data from Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC), irregular arrivals rose from 2,434 in 2016 to 20,593 in 2017, with most arriving by land in Quebec, pushing locations like Roxham Road into the spotlight.

Abelson also pointed out that while both Trump and Kamala Harris consider immigration a critical issue, they approach it from fundamentally different perspectives.

“Trump’s natural response is rooted in anger and vitriol,” he said, describing Trump’s policies as divisive and focused on quick deportations.

By contrast, Harris’ approach is “rooted in political and social accommodation,” with a more humane perspective on border issues.

Abelson explained that Canadian policymakers would likely find it “far more comfortable” working with a Harris administration on these issues due to shared principles around dignity in processing and integration.

Political climate drives interest in Canadian immigration

Interest in moving to Canada is rising once again among Americans concerned about potential shifts in U.S. policy. While discussions of moving north often surge during election cycles, Mario Bellissimo, a Toronto-based immigration lawyer and Certified Specialist in Citizenship and Immigration Law and Refugee Protection, said the actual number of Americans making the move tends to fall short of initial interest.

“For the last several presidential elections, we’ve noticed a spike in inquiries,” Bellissimo said. “In 2016, after Trump’s election, the interest was very high. But the actual numbers of individuals that actioned those intentions is never as high as what it’s expressed initially.”

Data from Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) shows that 88,830 U.S. citizens have gained permanent residency in Canada since 2015. Any “Trump bump” in immigration after the 2016 U.S. election appears to have been modest.

This year, however, with talk of stricter immigration laws and mass deportations in the U.S., Bellissimo reports an increase in inquiries. “There’s a lot of talk about mass deportation in this election,” he said. “We’ve been receiving a lot of inquiries related to that rhetoric,”

Bellissimo added that either candidate’s policies could impact Americans’ interest in Canadian residency, with motivations that range from family needs to political and economic concerns.

“We’re getting inquiries from skilled workers, students, families — and some think Canada is just an extension of the U.S. where they can come and work without needing special authorization,” he said.

Canada’s immigration system faces challenges

Canada’s immigration system is already under strain, and new challenges are emerging as the Liberal government recently announced significant cuts to immigration targets to alleviate pressure on housing, the labour market, and public services.

This move also makes the immigration process more competitive and selective for U.S. applicants compared to previous years.

“Canada is already managing over 200,000 cases in the refugee backlog alone,” he said, “It will put pressure on any Canadian government to quickly mobilize and create policies to really wade through what could be potentially large numbers.”

Asked in the House of Commons last week if Canada has a plan should a U.S. election trigger a “flood” of migration, Immigration Minister Marc Miller simply responded, “Yes.”

Bellissimo said he believes the Canadian government is already preparing contingency plans to handle a potential influx of applications from the U.S.

“We’ve never seen that ‘tsunami’ everyone fears after U.S. elections,” he said. “We certainly haven’t experienced that yet from a presidential election.”

“But there’s always a first time, and we can’t underestimate that possibility.”

With the potential for future policy shifts on both sides of the border, Canada’s approach to immigration remains adaptable but cautious.

“Whether it’s immigration, foreign policy, or environmental cooperation, Canada and the U.S. will navigate both shared interests and challenges within a complex bilateral relationship,” Abelson concluded, underscoring the importance of careful planning and coordination in facing future cross-border dynamics.