Finance Minister Flaherty, Conservatives Ready For Budget Unveiling

Conservative Finance Minister Jim Flaherty could put his minority government into election mode Monday by tabling a federal budget laden with spending initiatives and tax cuts, though he said Sunday it will be a difficult one for opposition parties to vote down.

At the heart of what’s likely his last budget before an election is a proposed fix to the fiscal imbalance that will provide $3.5 billion in annual transfers to provinces, primarily Quebec .

The transfers come as part of an effort to quell long-standing provincial gripes regarding insufficient sources of revenue to afford the mounting costs of social programs.

The added bonus for Stephen Harper and his Conservatives is that the prospects for a majority government in the next vote could hinge on his support in Quebec .

Another likely inclusion in the budget is a series of tax cuts and credits that will total about $3 billion and put roughly $200 a year in the pockets of each taxpayer if distributed broadly.

“If it turns out to be acceptable to the Opposition, terrific. If they don’t like it, then I think the Canadian people will decide they like it. I think Canadian families would vote for it,” Flaherty said Sunday. 

No new taxes are expected to be announced, though there may be scalebacks on current tax breaks for Alberta oil sands as part of a federal commitment to reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

Altogether, the budget appears to be a calculated attempt to avoid ideological issues that would inspire the unification of the three opposition parties and thus force an election.

“It’s a budget they can fight a campaign on, but not one to trigger an election,” said John Williamson, federal director of the Canadian Taxpayers Federation.

Harper’s repeatedly stated he doesn’t want an early election, but his party is acting like one’s right around the corner.

A leaked letter sent to supporters last week from the Conservative Fund Canada warned that the party needs “to be ready to campaign within the next week,” adding that the Tories are already in campaign readiness.

Additionally, Harper followed up a series of devastating attack ads against Liberal Leader Stephane Dion by using early March to dispense about $2.5 billion in environmental initiatives.

“It’s in Mr. Harper’s hands,” said NDP Leader Jack Layton.

“If he introduces a budget that doesn’t listen to what our party has put forward, we won’t vote for it. So far, I haven’t heard much that would suggest they are really going to tackle the problem of the average working family.”

On Friday Dion laid out his conditions for supporting the budget.

“We want a budget that will improve the competitiveness of this country, improve social justice and environmental sustainability,” he said.

“The last budget did everything wrong and we only hope this one will improve on the three fronts.”

Still, experts on the outside say all four parties should be wary of forcing a vote now.

“The Tories have the appearance of momentum, but I think a majority is questionable,” said Darrell Bricker of pollster Ipsos Reid.

“All reputable polls I’ve seen have them at best a couple of points ahead of where they were when they won a minority. And it’s risky. What’s happening in the Quebec election shows anything can happen when you pull the plug.”

A recent Strategic Counsel survey suggests the Conservative surge may have stalled. The poll showed the Tories at 36 per cent nationally, with Dion’s Liberals up to 31 per cent.