John Tory’s Fate In Jeopardy After By-Election Defeat

John Tory’s fate as leader of the Progressive Conservatives lay in serious jeopardy Friday after a stunning byelection defeat that has left the Opposition in limbo and could spell the end of his political career.

Rather than helping Tory steel his shaky grip on the top job, voters in the rural riding of Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock slammed the door on his last shot at a seat in the legislature. The electoral defeat – Tory’s second in as many years – had observers predicting he’ll be forced to resign.

A clearly wounded Tory shrugged off questions late Thursday about whether he would quit after five tumultuous years at the helm, saying he would discuss his future Friday at a press conference.

However, a published report Friday, citing a highly-placed party source, said Tory would announce that he is stepping down as leader at the news conference.

“Obviously, I’m very disappointed with the results of the election, as we all are,” Tory said in a brief speech to supporters in Lindsay, Ont.

“But the voters can never be wrong in what they decide, and I respect their decision.”

His silence was a virtual replay of the party’s convention last year, when a newly seatless Tory eked out a 66.9 per cent approval rating after a humiliating defeat in the 2007 election.

At the time, Tory refused to say whether he would quit, only to call reporters back a few hours later to announce he’d decided to stay on.

Tory badly needed a byelection victory to prove to his detractors that he was still worthy of the Conservative crown, even though he’d led the party into one of its worst electoral losses ever.

Many blamed the 2007 defeat on Tory’s controversial campaign promise to extend public funding to religious schools, and his refusal to back off the proposal until the last minute.

That mistake nearly cost him his job, but Tory hung on despite calls for his resignation, a meek leadership approval rating and his long drawn-out search for a seat.

But Tory won’t have the chance to lead his party in the legislature, as a riding that flew the Tory blue for 15 years suddenly turned Liberal red Thursday.

Cheerful faces that dotted Tory’s post-election party turned sombre and grim as the results trickled in. Excited chatter fell into hushed tones. BlackBerry screens were greeted with stunned disbelief as Tory’s main rival, Rick Johnson, saw his lead widen from 40 votes to more than 800 in the nail-biting race.

By the end of the night, Johnson had taken almost 44 per cent of the popular vote while Tory took in 41 per cent, losing by 906 votes.

Supporters who cheered and applauded Tory as he took the podium to deliver his concession speech lapsed into silence soon after he left, some giving into tears.

Observers say the crushing defeat has made it perfectly clear: Tory must quit.

“I see no possible way he can stay on as leader. He has got to go,” said Rob Mitchell, a veteran Conservative who worked for former premiers Mike Harris and Ernie Eves.

Johnson, a local school board chairman who lost to Conservative Laurie Scott in the 2007 election, was more charitable.

“I guess it’s like in baseball: three strikes and you’re out – and that’s what John’s dealing with,” he said as he celebrated his win at a pub around the corner.

“But I have respect for John. He’s done great things for this province and this country, and we haven’t heard the last of John.”

Even Premier Dalton McGuinty was surprised that the governing party had won the byelection with the province in the midst of a deepening recession, Johnson said.

“It’s a validation of, maybe in a small way, that people are looking for a calm, even voice to steer the province through right now.”

McGuinty, for his part, didn’t even mention Tory by name in a statement following Johnson’s win.

“Working together, Rick and I and our entire government will work as hard as we can to build a stronger Ontario by investing in our people and our economy,” the premier said.

Speaking outside his campaign office earlier in the day, Tory acknowledged that the past 17 months haven’t been easy.

“It’s been a challenging period of time for me personally, and it’s been challenging politically,” said Tory, who took the party’s top job in 2004.

The former Rogers executive easily won the riding of Dufferin-Peel-Wellington-Grey in a 2005 byelection, but chose to run in a Toronto riding two years later in the general election.

He was defeated in that contest by Education Minister Kathleen Wynne – the first time in 17 years that a leader from one of the three principal parties in Ontario failed to win a seat.

The Liberals fought hard for the Peterborough-area riding in this byelection, blanketing the airwaves with ads and urging voters to “vote local” with Johnson, who has lived in nearby Pontypool for more than 20 years.

McGuinty even dropped by the riding to lend his star power to the Liberal push for votes, said Tory’s campaign chief Andrew Hodgson, whose brother Chris held the riding for almost a decade.

But Tory campaigned at a breathless pace, he said, often working 16-hour days as he criss-crossed the sprawling central Ontario riding to sway voters – some of whom were dismayed by Scott’s decision to step aside for him.