Showdown on MMA: UFC 127 predictions

Posted February 25, 2011 2:35 pm.

This article is more than 5 years old.

After spending Thursday on location in Montreal, for a massive Gatorade shoot with UFC Welterweight Champion Georges St-Pierre, and his stellar team of coaches and teammates, a myriad of discussion surrounding the world of MMA was headlined by this weekend’s UFC 127 card in Australia.

For one, the winner of the main event between Jon Fitch and BJ Penn has been assured a title shot; but against whom?

Should Jake Shields defeat GSP at UFC 129 in Toronto, Shields would face the winner of Fitch and Penn.

But should Georges emerge victorious, I bring to you, once again, what I explained on this week’s episode of MMA Connected.

The consensus is that a victorious Captain Canada would then vacate his title and move him up to 185 lbs, to challenge middleweight champion Anderson Silva in what will likely be the sport’s biggest fight to date.

But mark my words there is no guarantee that fight will actually take place. But for argument’s sake, let’s say it does.

With the UFC’s welterweight division lacking a champion, one would hope the UFC would perhaps put together a four or eight man tournament that would be played out over a few events, with the two winners on opposing brackets facing off to determine the new 170 lbs kingpin.

Ironically enough, as mentioned on this week’s broadcast of The Showdown, the UFC could place Jon Fitch and Josh Koscheck on opposite sides of the brackets, if, and only if, they sign on paper that they would agree to face off against one another if they do end up meeting in the finals.

But this is all fantasy, right now…

Heading into UFC 127, I had maintained Penn was going to win, that is, until I spoke with one of the sport’s best coaches during my stay in Las Vegas, while covering UFC 126.

We dissected the records, trends, caliber of opponents and tendencies of both fighters, and the conclusion was unanimous: On paper, Jon Fitch should defeat Penn. But then, I reached out to this coach yesterday, and much to my surprise, he adjusted his tune once again.

This time around, he pointed out two updated factors that we should analyze. The first is BJ Penn is a completely different fighter during a three round fight vs. a five round fight. During the former, he comes out with a fury and doesn’t stop until he wins. During the ladder, he comes out fairly patient and paces himself accordingly. Chalk down one point for BJ Penn.

Or make that two.

One of the key strengths for Fitch in this bout was his size over Penn. I say was, because Jon has embraced a Vegan diet that has apparently slimmed down the welterweight stud to a walk around weight that is a mere 6-8 lbs over the division cutoff.

This drop in poundage has also sent red flags amongst his teammates and coaching staff. That one key attribute he had over BJ, may have literally, dissipated.

This has now swayed many who had originally picked Fitch, to now go with Penn. I maintain that Fitch should win, but it now becomes a much better fight. And should The Prodigy emerge victorious, many will be smiling ear to ear, as the old BJ is back. That is, unless the real old BJ is back.

While most may disagree, I would not be surprised if BJ uses the win to set up a trilogy bout he has been clamoring for since UFC 94.

He wants to fight GSP bad and I would not be surprised if he brings back the whole Grease Gate angle to bait TEAM GSP and the UFC into settling the score. Penn is a master at hyping up fights, because people will listen.

Heck, even if he doesn’t believe it, he may do it just because he knows it will sell and that’s genius.

To this day, people still refer to GSP as a greaser and it’s all because of Penn’s allegations. Don’t be surprised if he runs with that angle.

As for the rest of the card, my predictions are below.

Main card

Middleweight bout: Michael Bisping over. Jorge Rivera

Lightweight bout: George Sotiropoulos over. Dennis Siver

Welterweight bout: Chris Lytle over Brian Ebersole

Middleweight bout: Kyle Noke over Chris Camozzi

Preliminary card (free on Rogers Sportsnet)

Middleweight bout: Nick Ring over Riki Fukuda

Light Heavyweight bout: Alexander Gustafsson over James Te-Huna

Lightweight bout: Spencer Fisher over Ross Pearson