Lang on NFL: Predictions for Wild Card weekend
Posted January 6, 2012 12:40 pm.
This article is more than 5 years old.
After 17 weeks of exciting NFL action, the regular season is over.
There are 12 teams left standing willing to do whatever it takes to end up in Super Bowl 46 at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. Step one on the road to the Super Bowl is the Wild Card weekend.
Cincinnati at Houston (Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET)
The Texans win if: Wade Phillip’s “Bulls on Parade” defense has a big game and can force Andy Dalton into turning the ball over. The Texans can also win if running back Arian Foster has a monster game. With rookie T.J. Yates quarterbacking the offense, it is vital that Foster has a productive game. It would help a great deal if Yates, playing behind a huge offensive line, can get the ball into the hands of Andre Johnson once in a while to keep the Bengals defense honest.
The Bengals win if: They find a way to shut down Foster. Even with Johnson back in the lineup, if Yates is forced to throw too much the Texans are in trouble. Cedric Benson isn’t Foster but he still gives the Bengals an effective running game. The rookie duo of Dalton and A.J. Green has lit it up this season, and that needs to continue this Saturday. They are the first rookie tandem in the history of the NFL with a 3,000 yard passer and a 1,000 yard receiver.
Bills linebacker Nick Barnett faced the Bengals in week four and says the key to beating them is stopping their running game.
“You have to focus on their (Bengals) run game,” said Barnett. “Dalton can throw the ball. But any quarterback that becomes one dimensional it is going to be harder for them to win the game. If you allow them to control the clock and run the ball, and be able to throw the ball and have that one-two punch, then you’re going to be in trouble.”
Intangibles: The Bengals made the playoffs despite only beating one team with a record over .500 this year (the Titans were 9-7). This is the first playoff game in the Super Bowl era where two rookie quarterbacks facing each other. .
Who wins: If it wasn’t for bad luck, the Texans wouldn’t have any luck at all. The same year the franchise finally is playoff bound, they lost two starting quarterbacks in Matt Schaub and Matt Leinart. If Schaub was still healthy the Texans would be the clear favourite. Now the Texans have Yates, a rookie with less than half of the playing time of Dalton, running the offense and a washed-up Jake Delhomme backing him up. The Bengals are not a better team than the Texans, but at this point in time, they have the better quarterback. Dalton will be the difference as the Bengals pull out a win in a low scoring affair. Bengals 19, Texans 16
Detroit at New Orleans (Saturday, 8 p.m. ET)
The Lions win if: Drew Brees gets lost on the way to the Superdome. It would help if Ndamukong Suh and the rest of the front four can lay the wood to Brees and get him out of his comfort zone. As much as I love the duo of quarterback Matthew Stafford and wide out Calvin Johnson, the Lions won’t beat the Saints if they leave it all up to their offense. The Lions need to play tough defense, force a lot of three and outs, and score points every chance they get.
The Saints win if: They do what they do. When the Saints offense gets rolling it is breathtaking to watch. Whether he’s looking towards Jimmy Graham or Darren Sproles, Brees has an embarrassment of riches to work with on offense. Because of this, the Saints have the confidence they can outscore any team they face.
Intangibles: This is the first time in the history of the NFL that a playoff game will feature two quarterbacks who have thrown for at least 5,000 yards. After a victory in the 1957 NFL Championship, the Lions have won only one other playoff game; 1991 over the Cowboys.
Who wins: Lions fans have so much to be proud of. Their team has finally climbed out of the abyss and back into the post-season. More importantly, with the core of the team being so young, the Lions have a bright future ahead of them. But with that being said they are no match for the offensive pyrotechnics of the Saints. Brees and the Saints have the most explosive passing game in the NFL. That, along with a distinct home field advantage, will prove to be the difference in a high scoring and very entertaining game. Saints 41, Lions 34
Atlanta at New York (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)
Giants win if: They stop Michael Turner. If Matt Ryan and the Falcons find themselves in third and long too much they will play right into the waiting arms of a fearsome Giants pass rush that recorded 48 sacks this year. The Giants will also win if Eli Manning has the time to get the ball down field to the amazing Victor Cruz. The Giants running game is not as good as the Falcons so Manning must be given the time to work the ball downfield to his talented receiving corps.
In their own quiet way, Manning and the Giants had the fourth best passing attack in the NFC, amassing a total of 4,734 yards. Barnett said the best way to stop Cruz is to get after Manning.
“If you get to Manning,” Barnett said, “Cruz can’t get the ball. You have to have a pass rush to get to him (Manning). Once you get to him a couple of times and you hit him in the mouth I think his train of thought changes a little bit and his throws become more difficult for him.”
Falcons win if: Turner runs for 175 yards and the Falcons control the clock. The run game would help Ryan set up the play action and throw the deep ball to Julio Jones. The Falcons consider Jones their answer to Cruz and the rookie out of Alabama averaged almost 18 yards a catch. Atlanta’s great If they can find a way to get to Manning and hit him every chance they get.
Intangibles: With 16.5 sacks, Jason Pierre-Paul is only the third player in Giants history to have at least 16 sacks in a season. Lawrence Taylor and Michael Strahan are the other two.
Who wins: The Falcons won only two games this year outside of a dome, in Carolina and Seattle. Ryan is practically unbeatable at the Georgia Dome, yet he still hasn’t proved that he can win a crucial game on the road in a cold environment. Manning and the Giants have no such problems. For all their faults the Giants are a mentally tough, battle tested team. The Falcons are a solid team but they are facing the wrong team at the wrong time. The Giants win a close one at Met Life Stadium. Giants 27 – Falcons 23
Pittsburgh at Denver (Sunday, 4:30 p.m. ET)
Steelers win if: Dick LeBeau’s vaunted defense unleashes hell on Tim Tebow. Led by James Harrison and Troy Polamalu, the Steelers aim to make Tebow’s life miserable as they overwhelm him with zone blitzes and coverage schemes. The Steelers have the best pass defense in the NFL and that means if the Steelers stop the Broncos’ running game, Tebow is in big trouble. The Steelers also win if Ben Roethlisberger gets time to heave the ball down field to two of the best deep threat receivers in the AFC, Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown.
Broncos win if: Tebow can rediscover the magic that made him a household name across North America. The last three weeks of the season, Tebow struggled mightily and not surprisingly the Broncos lost all three games. The Broncos can win this game if their running game has a record setting day. They could also win if Von Miller and the defense can lay a beating on a banged up Roethlisberger. Big Ben has a bad ankle and running back Rashard Mendenhall is done for the year with a knee injury.
In Week 16, Barnett and the Bills beat the Broncos 40-14. The Bills had three interceptions in that game. Tebow was held to only 34 yards rushing on 10 carries. In Barnett’s mind, if you can prevent him from running the football, you can prevent “Tebow Time”.
“A lot of teams have tried to stop him from the running the ball,” Barnett said, “but they weren’t gap sound and gap controlled. When you’re facing the option there’s a lot of curious eyes and curious moves that can get you out of your gap. I think you have to stay in your responsibility until the ball passes you. Once you do that and get a lead on them (the Broncos) and force him to make the throws you put them in an awkward situation.”
Intangibles: The Steelers and the Broncos have met in the playoffs six times with each team winning three games. In five of those meetings the winner has advanced to the Super Bowl. Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin won’t let safety Ryan Clark dress this week because the game is being played at high altitude. Clark, who suffers from a Sickle Cell trait, became so ill after playing in Denver in 2007 that doctors had to remove his spleen and gall bladder.
Who wins: Tebow and the Broncos have been a nice story this season. That will all end Sunday when they face the Steelers. Tebow is about to face a defensive assault the likes of which he’s never experienced before. Even if the Broncos defense has some success slowing down the Steelers offense, the Broncos offense won’t be able to generate enough points to make it count. The Steelers win and Tebow takes a pounding in the process. Steelers 27 – Broncos 16
