NCAA tournament preview: Bracketbusters

By David Sole, sportsnet.ca

The NCAA Tournament is about to begin with 68 teams vying for a trip to New Orleans in late March and a spot in the Final Four.

Last year, the VCU Rams were the story of the tournament advancing from an early first-round game in Dayton all the way to the Final Four. VCU returns but there are a handful of other teams hoping to follow in the footsteps of the 2011 Cinderella Rams.

Here are nine schools seeded fifth or lower who could make a name for themselves over the first weekend of the tournament.

No. 10 West Virginia (East Region)

Despite finishing the season by losing eight of their last 12 games, the Mountaineers are going to be a tough out for seven-seed Gonzaga. The committee placed the Moutaineers in Pittsburgh which is just 120 kms from WVU’s campus in Morgantown. Expect the Mountaineer faithful to take over the Consol Energy Center. Although Marquette’s Jae Crowder was named Big East Player of the Year, the best all-around player in the conference is the Mountaineers Kevin Jones. He’s the type of player that could put a team on his back and carry them deep into the tournament. The 6-8 senior is fourth in the nation in rebounding (11.1) and 14th in the country in scoring (20.1). Coach Bob Huggins’ backcourt is anchored by senior guard Darryl (Truck) Bryant. He is second on the team in scoring (17.2) while playing over 37 minutes a game. In their last seven NCAA Tournaments, WVU has advanced to the Sweet 16 in five times and they’ve only lost in the first round in once (2009).

No. 13 Montana(East Region)

Montana and Weber State dominated the Big Sky Conference this season. Luckily for Montana, their conference tournament was played on their home court in Missoula. With an NCAA Tournament bid on the line, the Grizzlies, who trailed by five at halftime, outscored Weber State 54-30 in the 2nd half to earn the automatic bid. Montana enters the tournament on a school record 14-game win streak and finished with their best record since 1992. The Grizzlies lost only one conference game all season but they haven’t played a tough non-conference opponent since November when they beat Long Beach State 73-71. Will Cherry, a 6-1 junior guard, leads the team in scoring (16.0) and has scored in double figures in his last 19 games. Big Sky Coach of the Year Wayne Tinkle relies heavily on his starters. In the Big Sky Final win, they scored all 85 points and played all but nine minutes. Wisconsin is always a tough matchup in the tournament but if the Grizzlies are to advance, they must protect the ball.

No. 8 Creighton (Midwest Region)

One of the best players in this year’s NCAA Tournament is Creighton forward Doug McDermott. The 6-7 senior is averaging 23.2 points (3rd in the nation) and shoots an impressive 61 per cent from the field (7th in the nation). He also leads his team with 8.2 rebounds a game. No one is more proud of Doug’s accomplishments than his dad Greg, who just happens to be the Creighton head coach. The McDermotts are hoping to lead the Bluejays to their first tournament win since 2002 – they lost in the 1st round is 2003, 2005 and 2007. Creighton is a well-balanced team and have some of the best offensive numbers in the country. They average 80 points per game (7th in the nation), outscoring their opponents by over 10 points per game, shoot 50.9 per cent from the field as a team (best in the country) and average 17.9 assists (second in the nation).

No 11 N.C. State (Midwest Region)

New head coach Mark Gottfried has done something in his first year that former coach Sidney Lowe couldn’t do in his five years – get the Wolfpack back to the NCAAs. The Pack have five players who average over 10.6 points and four players who average over 4.3 rebounds per game. No one in their starting line-up is over 6-8 so matching up with a big inside players could give them trouble. Keep an eye on junior sharp shooter Scott Wood who shoots 41 per cent from behind the arc. Alex Johnson, a 5-10 senior guard from Toronto, who transferred from Cal State Bakersfield, is averaging 4.8 points in his first season.

No. 14 Belmont (Midwest Region)

The Bruins are a popular pick to knock off Georgetown on Friday. The tiny Nashville private school is making their fifth NCAA Tournament appearance since 2006 but they have yet to win a game. The Bruins won 14 in a row on their way to the Atlantic Sun Conference regular-season and tournament titles. Head coach Rick Byrd is in his 26th season coaching the Bruins and has racked up 637 career wins, eighth among active head coaches. Byrd is one of those coaches who will play any team, anytime, anywhere. Belmont’s first two games this season were a one-point loss at Duke followed by a 16-point loss at Memphis four days later. Byrd’s Bruins are a dangerous offensive team and the Hoyas better be ready. The Bruins scored 2,772 points this season – only North Carolina scored more. They outscored opponents by 14.2 points which is sixth-best in the nation. Six Bruins average 8.5 or more points as Drew Hanlen, Ian Clark and Kerron Johnson were all named first-team all-Atlantic Sun – the first time in the 34-year history of the conference that has happened.

No. 5 Wichita St. (South Region)

The Shockers are back in the field of 68 for the first time since 2006 when they advanced to the Sweet 16. Of their five losses this season, three were to NCAA Tournament teams (Alabama, Temple and Creighton). The Tournament committee has Wichita State rated as the 19th-best team in this year’s field but rewarded their 27-5 season by matching them up against last year’s Cinderella Final Four team Virginia Commonwealth in an intriguing Thursday game. The Shockers went 16-2 and won the regular season Missouri Valley Conference title by two games over a good Creighton team, but they ended their season with a disappointing 65-64 loss in the semi-finals of the MVC. Despite leading the team in scoring during the season, centre Garrett Stutz got has scored just 12 points in his past two games.What makes the Shockers a dangerous match-up is their balanced scoring and experience. Starting guards Joe Ragland and Toure’ Murry are both seniors and both average over 12 points per game. Up front, the Shockers start two seniors as well including Stutz – who leads the team in scoring, rebounding, field goal percentage and blocked shots. Stutz does all this despite playing only 24.8 minutes per game. Coach Gregg Marshall’s team averages 77.7 points per game (15th in the nation) and shoots 48.5 FG% (11th in the nation). They play stellar defense allowing teams to shoot just 39.2 per cent against them.

No. 6 UNLV (South Region)

UNLV is limping into the tournament having lost five of their last 10 games. Vegas started the season winning 21 of their first 24 games including a huge 10-point win over No. 1 and previously undefeated North Carolina in late November. The Rebels have one of the best kept secrets in the tournament in sophomore forward Mike Moser who led the team in scoring (14.1) and rebounding (10.6) this season. He recorded 15 double-doubles (19th in the nation) including his breakout game of 16 points and 18 rebounds in the win over UNC. Two of the Rebels starters began their collegiate careers playing for the UCLA Bruins – Moser and senior guard/forward Chace Stanback who is second on the team in scoring. Stanback also had a double-double vs. North Carolina (28 points, 10 rebounds) but has struggled in his last four games, averaging just six points, down from his season average of 12.7. Vegas is a dangerous team because they can flat out score as they totaled 2,607 points this season, outscoring their opponents by almost 11 points a game. They shoot a lot of three’s – making just over eight of them per game. UNLV has played in five of the last six NCAA Tournaments, so they have post season experience but they’ve lost in the first round the past two years.

No. 6 Murray State (West Region)

Murray State got revenge last Thursday against Tennessee State, the only team to beat the Racers this season. The Racers came back from a seven-point deficit in the final 5:28 to beat TSU and take the Ohio Valley tournament title. Head coach Steve Prohm has had an incredible rookie year. His 30 wins are fourth most by a first-year head coach since 1979. The Racers went 15-1 in the Ohio Valley and had an impressive non-conference schedule which included wins over four NCAA Tournament teams: eight-seed Memphis, nine-seed Southern Miss and seven-seed St. Mary’s. The small school has always been overshadowed by in-state schools Kentucky and Louisville, but the Racers are no stranger to the NCAA Tournament. This is the Racers’ 13th NCAA Tournament appearance since 1988, when they lost to Danny Manning and eventual champion Kansas in the second round. Since then, Murray State has gone on to lose their opener in their next 10 tourney appearances. They are another mid-seeded team that can put points on the board quickly with their long range shooting. They average 74.2 points per game and outscore their opponents by an average of 13 a game (11th best in the nation). The Racers are led by Donte Poole (14.2 points) and Isaiah Canaan who leads the team in scoring (19.2), assists (3.7) and is 10th in the country in three-pointers made per game (3). Upfront, senior forward Ivan Aska averages 10.9 points and leads the team in rebounds (5.7) and field goal percentage (50.0 %). As a team they shoot over 40% from long range, with Poole and Canaan combining to hit 160 of the teams 230 three’s. The one weakness Murray State has is on the glass. The Racers average just 33.3 rebounds a game (237th best in the country).

No. 12 Long Beach State (West Region)

Long Beach State was rated as the 51st best team in this year’s NCAA Tournament by the selection committee. They went 15-1 in Big West and have lost just three games since Dec. 19th. This is the school’s first appearance in the big dance since 1995. Long Beach State is led by seniors T.J. Robinson, Larry Anderson, Eugene Phelps and Casper Ware who combine to score 53 of the teams 74 points per game Four years ago these seniors were the first recruiting class brought in by new head coach Dan Monson. How far the Niners go in the tourney may depend on the play of 5-9 Ware. The team’s leader in points (17.4) and assists (3.3) torched UCSB for 33 points, including eight from behind the arc in the Big West Tournament Final. Ware, the two-time Big West Player of the Year, has scored in double figures in all but two games this season. Robinson, a 6-8 forward, has 16 double-doubles this season and averages a team high 10.1 rebounds per game. A big question mark is guard Larry Anderson who has missed the last three games with a knee injury. He was named Big West Defensive Player of the Year but it is unknown whether he will play against New Mexico.