Rewind 2014: Likeable Wynne leads scandal-plagued Liberals to victory

It’s been six months since Kathleen Wynne won an improbable majority in the Ontario election, despite the baggage inherited from Dalton McGuinty’s administration.

She started the campaign shackled to scandal, a $12.5-billion deficit and a tired government that had ruled the province for more than a decade.

Notably, she was left to atone for the costly cancellation of gas plants in Oakville and Mississauga (though she threatened to sue when then Ontario PC Party leader Tim Hudak and MPP Lisa MacLeod suggested she “possibly ordered” the alleged destruction of documents).

As Maclean’s columnist Paul Wells put it, she seemed like the “caretaker premier of a doomed Liberal government.”

Now, that magazine has ranked her the 11th most powerful person in Canadian politics, and she placed second on Toronto Life’s list.

She’s remained relatively unscathed so far, despite a bad couple of weeks before Queen’s Park shut down for the holidays. Ontario’s economy turned out to be in worse shape than forecast and the auditor general slammed the Liberals over their smart-meter program.

Here, we look at how circumstance worked in Wynne’s favour and why she could be re-elected in four years.

How she won

According to 680News political specialist John Stall, three things contributed to Wynne’s victory: her likeability, Hudak’s failure to connect with voters and his campaign promise to cut 100,000 public-sector jobs, which “just about put a stake through the heart of the Conservative campaign.”

“This really was the Conservatives’ election to lose — and they did,” Stall said. “They should have won, given the scandals that took place and the baggage that Wynne … inherited from the McGuinty years.

“Her likeability won the day.”

On the other hand, Stall said Hudak didn’t make the kind of connection with people that leads to victory.

“People just don’t vote for people they don’t like,” he said.

Her performance so far

“I think she’s done all right,” Stall said. “A little bit better than 60 per cent.”

He said she hasn’t had the opportunity to make her mark with an agenda or legislative roadmap.

The budget passed was the same one put forward before the election and defeated by Andrea Horwath’s NDPs.

“[Wynne’s] got a steady hand on the till,” he said. “Nobody dislikes her yet.”

What she needs to do over the next four years

Auditor General Bonnie Lysyk’s annual report showed the province’s debt continues to grow faster than the economy. By the time the annual deficit is eliminated by the government’s target of 2017-18, the public debt will stand at about $325 billion.

Stall said Wynne needs to reduce the figure and meet those targets while putting together a regional transit plan and finding a way to pay for it — whether it’s toll roads, a transportation tax or a portion of the gas tax.

“Those are the things that she’ll be measured by,” he said. “And if they’re not in place four years from now, that’ll say a lot.”

Will the Tories be a factor in the next election?

Stall said the PCs need one of two things: a well-timed revolutionary policy — like Mike Harris’s Common Sense Revolution after the recession — or a charismatic leader like federal Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau. The PC party will choose a new leader in May.

“Unless and until a Conservative leader has one of those two, I don’t think they’re going to win,” he said.

With files from The Canadian Press