With just 11 days before the election, it would take a “Tory collapse” for former city planner Jennifer Keesmaat to find herself in the mayor’s seat, according to the president of Forum Research.
An interactive voice response telephone survey conducted by Forum Research between Oct. 3 and 5 found John Tory with a commanding lead in the race, with 56 per cent voter support.
Despite her continued attacks on Tory on the campaign trail, the poll found Keesmaat has failed to gain any significant ground and only holds 29 per cent voter support.
“Things are not looking positive for the Keesmaat campaign right now,” Dr. Lorne Bozinoff, President of Forum Research, said in a release.
“Tory looks to have a double-digit lead, and, with only 2 weeks to go before election day, it’s a lead that may be very difficult to erase. Politics is a game where few results are completely unpredictable, but at this point, a Keesmaat victory would almost certainly require a Tory collapse.”
680 NEWS political affairs specialist John Stall says he’s not surprised by these numbers.
“First of all, there has been no measurable appetite for change in this election,” he explained.
“Tory certainly has his detractors but by and large he’s done a pretty good job. He’s been out front and seen everywhere by everybody. So in the absence of change, it would be very difficult for any opponent to beat him this time around.”
The poll found that Tory’s greatest support is with voters 45 years of age and older. Keesmaat is polling highest among voters in their 20s and 30s.
Advanced polls opened on Wednesday.
The data was collected through a survey of 987 randomly selected Toronto voters. Results based on the total sample are considered accurate +/- 3%, 19 times out of 20. Subsample results will be less accurate.