New COVID-19 variant ‘significant threat’ according to updated modelling data

The spread of the new COVID-19 variant poses a “significant threat” to controlling the pandemic in Ontario and the strain on intensive care units across the province continues, according to the latest modelling data released by provincial officials.

Dr. Adalsteinn Brown, the co-chairman of Ontario’s COVID-19 Science Advisory Table, says while transmission rates of the new B.1.1.7 variant are 30 per cent higher as is the mortality rate, international examples suggest that if current public health measures are maintained, we should still see a reduction in cases, even with a return to school. However, the report notes “infection control will be critical in schools.”

The report also notes that other COVID-19 variants are likely to emerge.

“The variant from the United Kingdom gives us less room to relax, and less room for error,” said Dr. Brown. “If we are able to keep our reproduction number down far enough as (it) becomes the dominant variant, we may be able to do things like keep schools open.”

Two weeks ago, when the last modelling data was released, officials warned Ontario could see 20,000 new cases a day by February and more than 1,000 patients in ICUs under what they called a “severe but realistic scenario.” New projections show between 1,000 to 2,000 cases a day by end of February but the new UK variant is expected to be dominant strain in March and could push new case counts higher.

The report notes that while cases and positivity are down across the province, testing volumes have also decreased, adding that “sustained high testing volumes will be important to control of the pandemic.”

Brown says while we are not out of the woods yet, the situation appears to be getting better.

“We’re doing better now than we were two weeks ago. Cases are down, hospitalizations are down and the mobility is down. And I know that this reflects sacrifices,” he said. “Perhaps most worrysome, the new variants of concern – the SARS-CoV-2 variant – are clearly spreading in the community and will likely be the dominant version of the virus March.”

Updated data on Thursday shows that while hospitalizations have started to decline, the strain on the ICU capacity continues. COVID-19 patients are projected to take up between 150 and 300 ICU beds by the end of February and access to non COVID-19 care in hospitals continues to decline.

“The access to care deficit continues to grow and will have short and longer-term negative impacts on health.”

The president of the Ontario Hospital Association said while the province appears to be flattening the curve, it is not in the clear yet because of the risk posed by the new variants.

Anthony Dale said almost 25 per cent of Ontario’s hospital intensive care unit beds are occupied by COVID-19 patients.

“At this stage of the pandemic, with health-care workers exhausted and minimal surge capacity left in the system, we must not lose our focus,” Dale said in a statement.

The modelling data shows that while cases are also declining across long-term care settings, deaths continue to rise and officials say we are likely to surpass the total number of deaths from the first wave.

Currently 41 per cent of all long-term care homes in the province are dealing with a COVID-19 outbreak, although the number of resident cases has been on the decline since Jan. 14. Since Jan. 1, almost 600 long-term care residents and three staff members have died.

NDP Leader Andrea Horwath said the latest modelling data shows that the province needs to bolster safety measures for essential workers, long-term care residents and in schools.

“If we take more action now, the worst could be behind us,” she said in a statement. “We can keep the new variants at bay. But if Doug Ford keeps refusing to invest in protections … then more agony and more tragic loss could still lay ahead.”

The new data comes two weeks after the province invoked a stay-at-home order in a bid to halt surging case spread.

The province’s chief medical officer of health said the province remains in a “precarious” position, but the new data does provide some reason for optimism.

Dr. David Williams said the latest figures show residents are abiding by the provincial lockdown and stay-at-home order.

“We’ve seen all the rates in the regions come down so that’s one reason for optimism,” he said.

“At the same time … we have to be very careful, especially when we’re dealing with the issue of the variants of concern.”