Health Ministry clarifies prior COVID modelling: ‘We have not seen the exponential rise that was predicted’
Posted January 4, 2022 5:17 pm.
Last Updated January 4, 2022 8:22 pm.
A spokesperson for Ontario’s Minister of Health is refining previous COVID-19 modelling projections by the province’s Science Table, who suggested “an immediate circuit breaker” due to the Omicron variant.
On Dec. 16, Ontario’s Science Table released updated data that forecasted, among many things, that the province needed to speed up the rollout of vaccine booster doses and implement more robust public health measures to try and blunt the spread of Omicron.
At the time, Science Table advisers projected case counts to reach 10,000 per day if no measures were taken.
Health Minister Christine Elliott’s office says the circuit breaker proposed “focused on the assumption that Omicron had the same severity as Delta and that as a result, ICU occupancy would rise substantially.”
“As part of the government’s initial response to Omicron, we, therefore, introduced a number of public health measures to reduce opportunities for close contact, including reducing capacity limits in certain indoor public settings to 50 per cent,” said spokesperson Alexandra Hilkene on Tuesday.
“While we continue to monitor ICU capacity closely, at this time we have not seen the exponential rise that was predicted. In fact, we have continued to trend below or within the margins of the best-case scenario projected by the Science Table.”
Last week, Public Health Ontario published a study that compared Omicron cases against Delta. It found that the risk of hospitalization or death was 54 per cent lower with Omicron. However, it noted that the total number of hospitalizations in the province will still likely see a significant rise due to the higher transmissibility.
At the time of the Science Table’s projections, co-chair Dr. Adalsteinn Brown said that this “could be the worst wave of the pandemic,” citing modelling that predicted ICU admissions would continue to grow without additional public health measures.
“Since this modelling was released, evolving evidence from around the world on Omicron has demonstrated that while Omicron is less severe, it is much more transmissible than Delta,” Hilkene continued.
“While Delta’s severity required a focus on our ICU admissions, Omicron has resulted in a sudden and significant increase in hospital admissions, as well as a recent increase in staffing challenges in many critical sectors due to the rapid rise in Omicron exposures.”
There were 1,290 people in hospital with COVID-19 as of Tuesday and 266 patients in intensive care. Public Health Ontario has said that daily COVID-19 infections, ranging recently from 10,000 to 18,000 in recent days, are presumably higher due to policy changes making tests less accessible.
Ontario hospitals were preparing to pause all surgeries deemed non-urgent on Wednesday to free up bed space and hospital workers. Some had already declared themselves strapped for resources, requiring patient transfers and an early ramp-down of surgeries.
“That’s why, like other jurisdictions across the country and around the world, our government has continued to take rapid action to introduce measures that will help blunt transmission and prevent hospitals from becoming overwhelmed as the province continues to accelerate its booster dose rollout,” Hilkene said.
The Ford government announced a series of measures Monday — including business and school closures — to curve the spread of the Omicron variant that’s expected to infect more people. The new measures are expected to remain in place until at least Jan. 26.
With files from The Canadian Press
