Ontario’s top science adviser says small COVID-19 bump likely from holiday gatherings
Posted April 20, 2022 5:00 pm.
The scientific director of the panel advising Ontario on COVID-19 says cases in the province might rise a bit after the holiday weekend, but it won’t fundamentally change the trajectory of the sixth wave.
Dr. Peter Juni said wastewater data shows a possible peak, the number of health-care workers testing positive for COVID-19 has plateaued, and test positivity has also plateaued.
There may be a rise in cases following holidays such as Easter, Passover and Ramadan, which is ongoing, but it will likely be small, he said.
“There may be a bit of a bump,” Juni said. “But no, it would not change the fundamentally the trajectory of this wave.”
The sixth wave will likely either stay on a plateau or start decreasing because of a high level of immunity from vaccines and recent infections as well as warmer weather allowing for more outdoor activities, which have a lower risk of transmission, he said.
Next week’s data will reflect the impacts of gatherings over the long weekend, Juni said.
Ontario’s case and contact management system is experiencing issues, but there were 1,073 new COVID-19 cases logged Wednesday.
With PCR testing eligibility restricted, Juni says multiplying the daily case count right now by 20 would give an accurate picture.
He had previously suggested a multiplier of 10, but he says while a wave is at a possible peak, a multiplier of 20 is more accurate.
There was a big jump in hospitazliations on Wednesday, increasing by almost 200 patients in one day to 1,662. Another 28 deaths were also reported by the province.
The Ontario Science Table released new projections last week that said the sixth wave of COVID-19 had likely plateaued or started to decline, but there is “significant uncertainty” around the impact of case growth on the provincial health system and deaths, noting that modelling indicates hospital occupancy is likely to continue to rise for some time.
With files from CityNews staff
