Showdown on UFC 133: Who has ‘The Edge?’

It’s been a while since I was able to actually sit down and draft up an article like this. When I write “The Edge” columns, it not only forces me to analyze (on paper) how a fight may play out, but I sincerely hope it helps you as well, especially if you are making your fantasy picks.

As always, and I apologize for sounding like a broken record, but as many of you have heard on “The Showdown” podcasts, I must throw out a caveat before I make any predictions: Remember, I am not responsible for a fighter’s silly game plan. What should happen is often what we see on paper but I cannot predict, for example, if a superior grappler decides to stand and trade with a superior striker. I cannot account for this type of risky behaviour.

With that being said, let’s take a look at who I believe will have “The Edge” at UFC 133: Evans vs. Ortiz II:

Main Event

Light heavyweight bout: Rashad Evans vs. Tito Ortiz

Striking: Evans

Wrestling: Similar

Submissions: Ortiz

Stamina: Ortiz

Elite level experience: Similar

Other Intangibles: Ortiz

Additional Thoughts: My head says Rashad but my heart says Tito. I foresee an explosive opening round, a back-and-forth second round and a rather conservative third round until the final minute. If it ends early, it will be Rashad who wins. If it goes the distance, I favour Tito, but you never know with the judges.

The Edge: Rashad Evans

Co-Main Event

Middleweight bout: Vitor Belfort vs. Yoshihiro Akiyama

Striking: Belfort

Wrestling: Akiyama

Submissions: Similar

Stamina: Similar

Elite level experience: Belfort

Other Intangibles: Belfort

Additional Thoughts: I believe the old adage “speed kills” is an adept description for what should occur when these two meet inside the Octagon. Look for Belfort to TKO Akiyama late in the first round or sometime in the second.

The Edge: Belfort

Welterweight bout: Denis Hallman vs. Brian Ebersole

Striking: Ebersole

Wrestling: Ebersole

Submissions: Hallman

Stamina: Similar

Elite level experience: Hallman

Other Intangibles: Hallman

Additional Thoughts: After 63 professional bouts, this is apparently Ebersole’s first “real” training camp. With effective footwork and his wrestling, he should be able to dictate where this fight will take place. In my opinion, if he keeps it standing, he wins the fight. But if Hallman gets a hold of him, it will be a long night for Brian.

The Edge: Hallman

Middleweight bout: Jorge Rivera vs. Constantinos Philippou

Striking: Philippou

Wrestling: Rivera

Submissions: Rivera

Stamina: Similar

Elite level experience: Rivera

Other Intangibles: Philippou

Additional Thoughts: Rivera’s well documented story is an inspiration to us all, but with all the recent talk of retirement, one has to wonder if that will play in the back of his mind. It likely will not, but it’s enough for me to take the underrated Philippou, who will likely use UFC 133 as his coming out party.

The Edge: Philippou

Welterweight bout: Rory MacDonald vs. Mike Pyle

Striking: MacDonald

Wrestling: MacDonald

Submissions: Pyle

Stamina: Similar

Elite level experience: Pyle

Other Intangibles: Pyle

Additional Thoughts: At UCC 12 on Jan. 25, 2003, I said it about Georges St-Pierre. During our pre-show for UFC 83 on Apr. 19, 2008, I said it about Jon Jones. During our pre-show for UFC 115 on Jun. 12, 2010, I said the same thing about Rory MacDonald. These are special fighters, who are destined to be champions. Pyle is another tough test that I believe Rory will somehow, someway, figure out.

The Edge: MacDonald

Prelim Bouts (On Sportsnet ONE & sportsnet.ca)

Light Heavyweight bout: Matt Hamill vs. Alexander Gustafsson

Striking: Hamill

Wrestling: Hamill

Submissions: Gustafsson

Stamina: Hamill

Elite level experience: Hamill

Other Intangibles: Hamill

Additional Thoughts: Taking this bout on short notice does not favour Hamill, but his elite level experience and track record of overcoming adversity may be the driving force to survive Gustafsson’s submission arsenal. If he keeps this fight standing, Hamill will win. If it goes down to the ground, he can TKO Gustafsson but it should be noted, if he does not keep his limbs in check, Gustafsson may take one home with him to Stockholm.

The Edge: Hamill

Featherweight bout: Chad Mendes vs. Rani Yahya

Striking: Mendes

Wrestling: Mendes

Submissions: Yahya

Stamina: Mendes

Elite level experience: Yahya

Other Intangibles: Mendes

Additional Thoughts: Yahya is a submission specialist that I highly doubt Mendes will engage with on the ground. This one has all the makings of Mendes keeping this fight standing and punishing Yahya for as long as the Brazilian can take it, or for as long as the referee will allow it.

The Edge: Mendes

Facebook Prelim Fights (Quick predictions)

Catchweight (138lb) bout: Ivan Menjivar vs. Nick Pace

The Canadian not making weight puts him in a very bad position with the UFC. Even if he wins, I don’t believe anyone from the UFC will be happy. Menjivar is on thin ice right now and is in a must-win situation. Mind you, Pace did the exact same thing in his last fight, so he received a second chance but that’s also because he defeated Will Campuzano with an amazing choke. Pace is very explosive, so Menjivar cannot afford to be methodic in this fight. He must take the space away; if not, he will lose.

Welterweight bout: Johny Hendricks vs. Mike Pierce:

This has fight of the night all over it. Two stud wrestlers who will not concede any sort of control to the other. It has all the makings of a stand-up battle with Hendricks likely doing a slight bit more than Pierce.

Featherweight bout: Mike Brown vs. Nam Phan

Brown, having lost three of his last four fights and on a current two-fight losing streak, is in a must-win situation. The former champ will have his work cut out for him vs. Phan, but I believe it’s a perfect match-up for him. The streak will come to an end at UFC 133.

Middleweight bout: Rafael Natal vs. Paul Bradley

It’s been a long time coming, but we finally get to see Bradley’s “official” Octagon debut. He will have his work cut out for him vs. Natal, who is a resilient fighter with slick ground skills. Look for Bradley to surprise many and pull out the victory with his newfound stand-up skills, or via TKO on the ground. Bradley’s wrestling is superior, but like I said about Hamill earlier on, he better keep his limbs in check or Natal will have a new article for his trophy case.

Note: ‘Other intangibles’ could include quality of training partners, in prime of career, facing a fighter in twilight of career, opponent injured recently, facing a fighter who is making their Octagon debut, facing a fighter who is taking the bout on short notice, etc …