Cormack on MLB: Atlanta’s next great arm

Posted October 5, 2012 7:00 am.

This article is more than 5 years old.

For many fans, Friday night’s NL wild card tilt between the Atlanta Braves and St. Louis Cardinals represents much more than the first game of the 2012 post-season.

It’s also their first chance to watch Kris Medlen pitch.

Others may be asking themselves, “Kris who?”

In addition to being the Braves starter in Friday’s do or die contest, Medlen might also be the most intriguing, and potentially, the most impactful player in these MLB playoffs.

In 12 starts since the all-star break, the 26-year-old has a 9-0 record with a 0.94 ERA (yes, you read that number right), 0.818 WHIP, 9.0 K/9 and a 6.79 strikeout to walk ratio. The National League pitcher of the month award for August and September bears his name and had he pitched enough innings to qualify, Medlen would have led the National League in ERA (1.57), WHIP (0.913), and opponents’ OPS (.529).

His .261 BABIP suggests lady luck has lent her hand at times this year, but his 4.4 WAR suggests this kid has been a stud, lucky or not, in 2012.

Not surprisingly, Medlen’s gaudy numbers, pin-point precision in the strike zone and ability to dominate hitters without a plus-fastball has prompted some to draw comparisons to former Braves great Greg Maddux.

What is surprising, is who has been linking the two.

“He’s the closest thing I’ve seen to Greg Maddux, with a few more miles per hour on his fastball,” former Braves pitcher John Smoltz recently told MLB.com. “If you look at a young Greg Maddux and what he was able to do with that 91 or 92-mph comebacker, it was pretty impressive. I’d say Medlen has a better curveball and Greg had a better changeup, but they’re close.”

Hank Aaron agrees.

“He reminds me a lot of Maddux,” Aaron told MLB.com. “Maddux had excellent control, and that is the same thing about Medlen. He’s fun to watch. He does such a great job. It’s good for the ballclub to have a guy like that.”

In early Septemeber Medlen had his scoreless innings streak snapped at 34.2. It was the longest such streak by a Braves pitcher since, wait for it… Maddux in 2000.

Adding to the intrigue surrounding Medlen is how he got to this point.

After being selected in the 10th round of the 2006 draft out of college, the Braves thought Medlen profiled best as a reliever and that’s where he stayed until 2008 when they decided his stuff was simply too good to not use from the first inning on.

Between 2009-10 Medlen posted a 3.90 ERA over 175 innings (18 starts) with the Braves, but after beginning the 2010 season in their starting rotation his season came to a premature end in August due to Tommy John surgery.

This past spring the Braves wanted Medlen in their rotation, but they also knew he would be working this season with an innings cap of 160. So in order to ensure he would be available to them down the stretch and in the playoffs he pitched exclusively out of the bullpen for the first three months of 2012 before gradually being stretched out.

It’s a strategy the Washington Nationals might be now kicking themselves over for not adopting with Stephen Strasburg. Strasburg, you may recall, was shut down by the Nationals earlier this year as a precautionary measure after throwing 159.1 innings. He, like Medlen, underwent Tommy John in 2010.

But before we all anoint the Braves as geniuses and the Nationals as fools, it should be pointed out that there’s a chance the Braves could find themselves in their own Strasburg-like predicament.

Entering play Friday, Medlen stands at 138 innings, meaning he has the equivalent of three, seven-inning starts left in him before the Braves will be presented with their own dilemma.

The Braves would likely have to reach the World Series for that to happen, but first, they must get past the Cardinals on Friday. It won’t be easy.

The defending World Series champions boast a balanced offensive attack and they’ve tabbed a decent pitcher in his own right in Kyle Lohse (16-3, 2.86 ERA, 1.090 WHIP) to take on Medlen.

Incredibly, the Braves have won a record MLB-record 23 straight games in which Medlen has started.

The law of averages suggests Medlen’s record run is due to end sometime soon, but given how the regular season played out, playing the percentages may be anything but a safe bet in 2012.

Friday, Oct. 5:

MLB Central: Wild Card Preview Show, 4:30 p.m. ET (Sportsnet)

NL wild card: Cardinals @ Braves, 5 p.m. ET (Sportsnet)

AL wild card: Orioles @ Rangers, 8:30 p.m. ET (Sportsnet)

Saturday Oct. 6:

2012 MLB Playoff Preview Show, 5 p.m. ET (Sportsnet)

ALDS Game 1: Athletics @ Tigers, 6 p.m. ET (Sportsnet)

NLDS Game 1: Reds @ Giants, 9:30 p.m. ET (Sportsnet)

Sunday Oct. 7:

MLB Central: Playoff Preview Show, TBD

ALDS Game 2: Athletics @ Tigers, TBD

NLDS Game 2: Reds @ Giants, TBD