Ontario’s depleted ICU system will struggle to respond to winter surge of COVID-19 cases: Modelling

Ontario’s already-depleted ICU system “will have trouble responding” to a predicted surge of winter COVID-19 cases, Ontario’s Science Table warned in new modelling released on Tuesday.

Even without taking into account the spread of the new Omicron variant, the Science Table projects ICU occupancy will likely grow to 250-400 beds in January, putting hospitals under strain to keep up.

“Ontario ICUs have been under unprecedented pressure and will have trouble responding to another surge in patients,” the table wrote.

The table says that strain is being exacerbated by a “growing crisis” in staffing for critical care patients, leading to high levels of burnout.

“Despite new beds and strong management, ICUs will be challenged in responding to any new surge in patients because of staffing constraints.”

The table says the Delta variant remains the dominant strain in Ontario, but if the Omicron variant takes hold it will “likely drive COVID-19 cases above current projections.”

In Tuesday’s modelling, the table projects cases could rise to 3,000 per day by mid-January if there’s no change in public behaviour and 30 per cent of children 5 to 11 are vaccinated by the end of December.

Those numbers drop dramatically if 50 per cent of kids in that cohort are vaccinated by the end of December, and even more so if additional public health measures are put in place.

The table notes that “vaccine effectiveness in Ontario remains very high but experience in other countries suggests we will need to boost immunity with third doses.”

“To control cases and the impact on our health system, we need to increase vaccination (particularly 5-11 year-olds) and continue to use public health measures to reduce transmission now.”

In a series of tweets announcing the new modelling, the table tried to balance the ominous with the optimistic.

“We can’t predict Omicron precisely, but it will almost certainly hit us hard and fast.

“This is key: We KNOW what to do. The same measures that protected us vs Delta will protect us from Omicron: masking, ventilation, reducing contacts. We’re not back at square one.”

Ontario’s Chief Medical Officer of Health, Dr. Kieran Moore, called the new modelling “disconcerting” on Tuesday, but said the worst outcomes are preventable.

“Our fate is in our hands — we can wash them, we can use them to put a mask on and we can find the nearest clinic where we can provide the safe and effective vaccines.”