Russian pledge to scale back in Ukraine draws skepticism

Russia’s pledge to scale back some military operations in Ukraine drew skepticism, a bitter reality check in a rare moment of optimism five weeks into what has devolved into a bloody war of attrition.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said there was no reason to believe Russia’s announcement that it would reduce military activity near Kyiv, the capital, as well as in the northern city of Chernihiv, given what’s happening on the ground.

“We can call those signals that we hear at the negotiations positive,” he said in his nightly video address to the Ukrainian people. “But those signals don’t silence the explosions of Russian shells.”

Still, Tuesday’s talks sketched out what could end up being a framework for ending the war that has imposed an increasingly punishing toll, with thousands dead and more than 4 million Ukrainians fleeing the country. The talks had been expected to resume on Wednesday, but with what Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu called “meaningful” progress made, the two sides decided to return home for consultations.

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At the conference in Istanbul, Ukraine’s delegation laid a framework under which the country would declare itself neutral and its security would be guaranteed by an array of other nations.

Russian Deputy Defense Minister Alexander Fomin said Moscow would in the meantime “fundamentally … cut back military activity in the direction of Kyiv and Chernihiv” to “increase mutual trust and create conditions for further negotiations.”

He did not spell out what that would mean in practical terms.

Russian delegation head Vladimir Medinsky said negotiators would take Ukraine’s proposals to Russian President Vladimir Putin and then Moscow would provide a response, but he did not say when.

Cavusoglu said he expected a meeting between the Russian and Ukrainian foreign ministers at an unspecified time. Another between the presidents of the two countries is also “on the agenda,” he said. Russian state news agency Tass reported that Moscow’s delegates arrived back in Russia late Tuesday.

In the wake of the flurry of proposals and some muted optimism, Zelenskyy warned the world and his own people not to get ahead of themselves. He said Ukrainian troops had forced Russia’s hand, adding that “we shouldn’t let down our guard” because the invading army can still carry out attacks.

“Ukrainians are not naïve people,” he said. “Ukrainians have already learned during the 34 days of the invasion and during the past eight years of war in the Donbas that you can trust only concrete results.”

The U.S. and others also expressed doubts about Russia’s intentions.

While Moscow portrayed it as a goodwill gesture, its ground troops have become bogged down and taken heavy losses in their attempts to seize Kyiv and other cities. Last week and again on Tuesday, the Kremlin seemed to lower its war aims, saying its “main goal” is gaining control of the mostly Russian-speaking Donbas region in eastern Ukraine.

“We judge the Russian military machine by its actions, not just its words,” British Deputy Prime Minister Dominic Raab told Sky News on Wednesday. “There’s obviously some skepticism that it will regroup to attack again rather than seriously engaging in diplomacy.”

He added that “of course the door to diplomacy will always be left ajar, but I don’t think you can trust what is coming out of the mouth of Putin’s war machine.”

Britain’s Ministry of Defense said Wednesday that Russia stating a focus on Donetsk and Luhansk in the Donbas region “is likely a tacit admission that it is struggling to sustain more than one significant axis of advance.”

“Russian units suffering heavy losses have been forced to return to Belarus and Russia to reorganize and supply,” the ministry said in a statement. “Such activity is placing further pressure on Russia’s already strained logistics and demonstrates the difficulties Russia is having reorganizing its units in forward areas within Ukraine.”

It noted that the shift is unlikely to mean relief for civilians in cities suffering relentless Russian bombardments, saying that it expects Moscow will “continue to compensate for its reduced ground maneuver capability through mass artillery and missile strikes.”

U.S. President Joe Biden, asked whether the Russian announcement was a sign of progress in the talks or an attempt by Moscow to buy time to continue its assault, said: “We’ll see. I don’t read anything into it until I see what their actions are.”

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken suggested Russian indications of a pullback could be an attempt by Moscow to “deceive people and deflect attention.”

It wouldn’t be the first time. In the tense buildup to the invasion, the Russian military announced some units were loading equipment onto rail cars and preparing to return to their home bases after completing exercises. At the time, Putin was signaling interest in diplomacy. But 10 days later, Russia launched its invasion.

Western officials say Moscow is now reinforcing troops in the Donbas in a bid to encircle Ukraine’s forces. And Russia’s deadly siege in the south continues, with civilians trapped in the ruins of Mariupol and other devastated cities. The latest satellite imagery from commercial provider Maxar Technologies showed hundreds of people waiting outside a grocery store amid reports of food and water shortages.

“There is what Russia says and there is what Russia does, and we’re focused on the latter,” Blinken said in Morocco. “And what Russia is doing is the continued brutalization of Ukraine.”

Even as negotiators gathered, Putin’s forces blasted a gaping hole in a nine-story government administration building in a strike on the southern port city of Mykolaiv, killing at least 12 people, emergency authorities said. The search for more bodies in the rubble continued.

“It’s terrible. They waited for people to go to work” before striking the building, said regional governor Vitaliy Kim. “I overslept. I’m lucky.”

Pentagon spokesman John Kirby said the U.S. has detected small numbers of Russian ground forces moving away from the Kyiv area, but it appeared to be a repositioning of forces, “not a real withdrawal.”

He said it was too soon to say how extensive the Russian movements may be or where the troops will be repositioned.

The meeting in Istanbul was the first time negotiators from Russia and Ukraine talked face-to-face in two weeks. Earlier talks were held in person in Belarus or by video.

Among other things, the Kremlin has demanded all along that Ukraine drop any hope of joining NATO.

Ukraine’s delegation offered a detailed framework for a peace deal under which a neutral Ukraine’s security would be guaranteed by a group of third countries, including the U.S., Britain, France, Turkey, China and Poland, in an arrangement similar to NATO’s “an attack on one is an attack on all” principle.

Ukraine said it would also be willing to hold talks over a 15-year period on the future of the Crimean Peninsula, seized by Russia in 2014.

Vladimir Medinsky, head of the Russian delegation, said on Russian TV that the Ukrainian proposals are a “step to meet us halfway, a clearly positive fact.”

He cautioned that the parties are still far from reaching an agreement, but said: “We know now how to move further toward compromise. We aren’t just marking time in talks.”