Previous Pandemics Have Been Deadly

Pandemic. It’s a word that conjures up frightening visions last seen here during the 2003 SARS crisis. The phenomenon occurs about three times a century and experts had long been predicting we were overdue for the next one. Whether this latest swine flu actually turns out to be that long feared event is a matter for history.

But there’s little doubt that the fears are justified. Pandemics can be deadly, taking millions of lives as a virus for which mankind has no immunity spreads it way across the planet, only to come to a sudden end and simply peter out.

What happened in the previous instances last century? Here’s a look back at where we’ve been – and where we could be going again.

1918: The Spanish Flu (top left)

It was called the Spanish flu by most, although there was never any evidence it actually started in that country. (Ironically, in a fit of nationalistic pique, the Spaniards rejected that moniker, and always referred to it as the French flu.) It’s believed to have originated in birds.

But wherever it came from, it took no mercy. The outbreak came at the height of World War I, and is thought to have first hit soldiers from Europe and America, whose immune systems may have been weakened by exposure to early chemical weapons.

From there, it moved with lightning swiftness to Asia, killing over a million people in China alone. And when it reached North America, the effects were equally profound. More than 40,000 people died in the two weeks ending October 26, 1918. And that was just the start.

In Canada, the death toll was close to 50,000. At least 1,682 people in Toronto succumbed to the illness.

The strain was marked by a characteristic that seems to be mimicked by the current swine variation from Mexico. While the usually vulnerable – the elderly, people with compromised immune systems and the very young – were all victims, the Spanish version was especially virulent among younger people, with the highest mortality rate for those between 20 and 50.

Health officials were powerless to stop the disease’s rampage. Efforts to come up with a vaccine proved useless, as it ravaged the globe for 18 very long months.

And then it simply disappeared, leaving survivors to contemplate both their losses and their luck. The final death toll across the planet was estimated at a staggering 40 million people, the worst such outbreak in modern history.

1957: The Asian Flu

It was originally seen in wild ducks in the Far East, giving it the name by which it’s remembered. The first places to become infected were Asia, India, Africa and the Middle East, with cases detected there in the summer months. Canadians watched and wondered when our turn would come.

Their answer arrived that September, when the illness started turning up across the country as kids went back to school and began infecting others. They passed it to their parents and the cycle many feared had begun.

In a scene reminiscent of recent events in Mexico and New York, the spread forced the closure of schools and public gathering places, leaving deserted streets as winter set in. 

The bug seemed to disappear in December of that year, only to resurface without warning in the early part of the New Year.

By the time it was over that spring, thousands had been sickened. There were more than 6,000 deaths in Sudbury alone. The U.S. suffered nearly 70,000 casualties. 

But both countries were relatively lucky. Overseas in India and Asia, the bug claimed a staggering two million lives.

1968: The Hong Kong Flu

It was first detected in the so-called Pearl of the Orient early that year. By September, it was in North America and had officially reached pandemic status around the Christmas season. It lasted a year, seemingly targeting those over 65.

This strain was believed to be a variant of the Hong Kong type that struck the world a decade earlier, and that may explain why it didn’t take as great a toll as the others. Many people had a form of immunity and were able to fight off its effects. And it hit in North America during the holidays – when fewer kids were in school, potentially stopping the spread.

The Hong Kong Flu Pandemic of 1968 is considered the mildest of the three. But it was still costly. In all, it took about a million lives around the globe. And it’s believed to have resurfaced several years later. The same flu was detected in 1970 and 1972. By then, most had developed some antibodies to it and the effects of its presence avoided any further massive outbreaks.

There have been other scares since, including concern over the bird flu in the new century and of course our own bout with SARS. But up until now, the world has been wondering when the next pandemic might hit and where it would come from.

Find out more about pandemics and near-pandemics here.