Conspiracy Theorists And Scientists Both Wonder: Where Did This New Flu Strain Come From?

The Mexican government is blaming the World Health Organization for not being fast enough to act on the influenza outbreak. 

Residents of the small Mexico town where it first surfaced are pointing fingers at a firm that owns several pig farms there.

And some critics are charging that health officials in countries around the world simply weren’t ready for the outbreak, despite knowing a flu pandemic was long overdue.

As so often happens during this kind of emergency, the initial concern sometimes gives way to a kind of blame game, with everyone looking for reasons about why an imminent threat surfaced in the first place.

But it might be more productive to ask the one question that could answer many others: where did this new strain of flu originate and how did it spread so fast?

Conspiracy theorists have come out of the woodwork on this one, blaming dead pigs from China, a plot by al-Qaida, an attempt by Mexican drug cartels to bring the nation to its knees, and a covert scheme by world government boosters to strip you of your rights by scaring you with an unknown disease.

But the truth – as it often is – may be much simpler. Scientists explain this is typical of the flu virus, which has an ability to not only mutate from year to year (the reason why your annual flu shot is based on a ‘best guess’ about what this year’s strain will be) but also to occasionally jump from species to species.

That appears to be what happened in this case and that’s what could make it so dangerous. The so-called H1N1 strain of influenza A, known rightly or wrongly as the swine flu to most, is believed to have elements of both pigs and humans.

It’s one of the things in its make-up that makes it so hard to predict. It’s also why many of us have no immunity to it.

And it’s still capable of mutating further. A scary scenario could see the virus going back to pigs, mutating again, and getting retransmitted to humans in still another new form.

Scientists are working hard to unlock the key to the disease, knowing finding its origins can also help them develop an effective vaccine, while preventing future outbreaks. But they don’t buy the rapidly multiplying theories of shadowy people releasing the virus on the world.

“The claim of the conspiracy theorists is that this new combination could not have occurred naturally, but this is not true,” writes biologist Michael Le Page in the New Scientist. “Flu viruses consisting of a mixture of human, swine and bird strains have been found before.”

Whatever the real source, many have been forced to deny the rumours already circulating around the planet. Nations that are thought to be lax in sanitation and where animals and people share close quarters are being cited.

That prompted China’s Agriculture Minister to issue an angry denial on Wednesday, after it was suggested dead pigs in the eastern part of that country could be the source.

And Smithfield Foods, which runs the pig farms in question in Mexico, was also quick to eschew any involvement. “Based on available recent information, Smithfield has no reason to believe that the virus is in any way connected to its operations in Mexico,” the company assures in a statement.

So where did it come from? Experts insist attempts to take the “swine” out of the swine flu don’t negate the fact it has a porcine origin. We may never know exactly where those ailing hogs were from. But finding out where the virus they had is going may be a lot easier.

Still, the biggest worry may be developing a vaccine in a timely manner.

Unlike fictional TV shows where the hero arrives with an antidote or a cure at the last minute, real vaccines take six months to a year to create, and must be fully researched and tested to be sure they work before they’re used on anyone.