NCAA Tournament: Bracket advice

By: Kevin Nielsen

It seems so simple.

When you get your brackets for the NCAA tournament, it just seems so obvious who you should take. After all, a group of men have been locked in a room in Kansas for over a week trying to determine seeding and where to rank teams and how to place teams in the brackets. The work has been done for you.

If only this were so easy we could all move to Las Vegas and the streets would be paved with gold. We could always pick the favourites and come out as champions. Instead, the city’s casinos just seem to multiply. (Side note: I will ignore the previous statement as I plan my next trip to Sin City.)

A year ago, I wrote a few simple guidelines for helping you win your office pool and had you followed my advice, you would have likely finished somewhere right in the middle of the pack. Nice!

So I am back at it again. Some rules are made to be broken and we shall try this again. The first rule last year worked and we shall stick to it. As soon as you are handed your bracket, take the No. 1 seed in each region and advance them two rounds. Then take the No. 2 seed in each region and advance them one round. This held to form last year.

Yes, you need to take a few underdogs but save your Houdini-like picks for lower seeds or later rounds. A No. 1 seed has never lost in the opening round and only four No. 2 seeds have been taken down in Round 1. The last time a No. 15 seed won a game was back in 2001 when Hampton knocked off Iowa State.

This year, they have added a new wrinkle to the tournament. There are three extra play-in games on Tuesday and Wednesday. Two of these games will not matter because of the previous rule, however, UAB and Clemson will play for the right to be the 12 seed in the East while USC and VCU will square off for the right to be the No. 11 seed in the Southwest.

Why did the NCAA do this? That is a long diatribe for another day but more importantly, how could this affect your pool? I am immediately penciling in these teams to be ejected from the tournament in the following round. The travel and lack of preparation time for their next opponent seems like a difficult disadvantage to overcome. (I am reserving the right to take a mulligan on this since I believe Georgetown and the Thompson family are historic chokers, (remember 1985?) and they will face No. 11 seed in the Southeast.)

After you advance the top seeds, start looking at the 8-9 games. This is where you should see a couple of minor upsets as well. In the past, 54 per cent of No. 9 seeds have advanced and last year they went two-for-four again. Now, as the seed gets higher, there is less likelihood that the team will win; however, besides the aforementioned 8-9 game there is one other exception to that rule.

There have been 104 first-round games for each seed since the current format of the tournament was adopted back in 1985. The No. 12 seed has won 35 times whereas the No. 11 seed has won 33 times. Not a huge difference but something to keep in mind when you are filling out your brackets. Besides, isn’t it much sexier to take the lower seed to advance anyways?

OK, our friends from Butler made us look like idiots a year ago as they made the final but didn’t win the big prize. This brings me back to another important rule—- a non-BCS school hasn’t won a title since UNLV back in 1990. (Now if you don’t know what a BCS school is, I will allow you in on another little secret tool of mine called Google.) That means I am eliminating the Mormons (BYU and Utah St.), the Hippies (Gonzaga) and the Aztecs (San Diego St.) from winning the tournament. You can’t trust hippies anyways.

Let’s take a quick look at each region and some of teams that could pull upsets and advance:

East region:

Ohio St is the top seed overall in the tournament and will be a tough out for anyone. They have a player who will be a top-five pick in Jared Sullinger and a few other scoring options such as sharpshooters David Lighty and Jon Diebler. Their coach may be the only thing holding them back as he’s had some top talent before and has fallen short.

There are some powerhouse schools in this region such as North Carolina, Syracuse, Kentucky, Washington and West Virginia so it will be an exciting group to watch.

The Orange from Syracuse are very young with only one senior in their starting line-up So you should keep an eye on a possible second-round match-up with Xavier who are basically playing at home in Cleveland. Admittedly, Syracuse is my team so I may be trying to do a reverse jinx and get them a win here.

North Carolina is a team that could do some serious damage here as well. They started the season very slowly and have been on a sweet tootsie roll as of late as they were the regular season ACC champions.

Kentucky may be one of the most-talented teams in the tournament but a second-round rematch with West Virginia could be a tough one. The Mountaineers knocked the Wildcats out in the Elite Eight a year ago and I would pick them again as they have the advantage in coaching and experience. The coaching advantage cannot be understated more as Kentucky head coach John Calipari is a great recruiter but an awful in-game manager.

West Region:

A year ago, Duke won the national title but they were blessed with a weak bracket and a myriad of upsets that made things even easier for them. There are some tougher outs this year for the Blue Devils as there are several conference tournament champions headed out West including San Diego St, Connecticut and Memphis. I am still not certain if any of them have the juice to knock off the defending champs. Duke probably won’t be tested until the third round when they will likely face either Arizona or Texas.

Texas has a pair of stud young Canadians in Tristan Thompson and Cory Joseph but they are held back by a coach (Rick Barnes) who never seems to be able to get the most out of his talent.

Arizona is a bit of a mystery team as they played in a weak conference but Arizona does have a new coac h(Sean Miller) who has exceeded expectations in previous stints in the tournament

Connecticut won five games in five days to win the Big East title against top-notch competition but it wouldn’t surprise anyone if that run didn’t wear out the Huskies. Bucknell has pulled off upsets in the past and this could be another.

Southwest region:

I like Kansas a lot here. I recently saw a stat that said teams with a lot of upperclassmen have won most of the recent titles and the Jayhawks follow that rule. They are going to be a tough out. Just ask Texas whom they manhandled in the Big 12 Championship game on Saturday.

That being said, we have been here many times before with the Jayhawks. They almost always seem to be a contender for the title and almost always seem to be a candidate to be knocked out early as well. On paper, they have been blessed with the weakest region of the four.

There are three Big East powerhouses on the horizon in Louisville, Notre Dame and Georgetown as well as a Purdue team that was a pre-season favourite to do some damage but lost key starter Robbie Hummel to injury at the start of the season.

Louisville coach Rick Pitino is another great recruiter who usually fails to get the most out of his teams but it looks as though his top assistant, Ralph Willard, has had more of an influence in the team’s style of play and they could be a tough out for Kansas.That is of course if they can take out Vanderbilt. The Commodores not only have a cool name but a grind-it-out style that may be a scary match-up for anyone.

I am still not sure what to make of Notre Dame. I think they would be a prime candidate to get knocked out early as they have rarely done much in the tournament and they have never made it to the Big East final. That being said, this is a veteran team who plays well together and have been tested by every style in the tough
Big East where they finished second.

Georgetown recently lost starting point guard Chris Wright to injury although the team says he will be back in time for the tournament. If Wright plays, the team may be underseeded but if he can’t go, Georgetown could be one and done.

Southeast Region:

The Southeast is another region where the top seed has failed to live up to its previous billing. The Pittsburgh Panthers were a No. 1 seed two years ago and were knocked out in the Elite Eight by in-state rival Villanova. The Panthers were also ejected quickly from this year’s Big East tournament by UConn after earning a double-bye as regular season champs. Alarm bells may be ringing here.

That being said, they did come out as regular season champions in a conference which placed a record 11 teams in the NCAA tournament. (The previous record was eight.)

Pittburgh’s stiffest competition should come from either Florida or BYU. However, these teams face some brutal opponents at their end of the bracket. Michigan St, UCLA, Gonzaga and St. John’s are all teams that could cause problems for the No. 2 and No. 3 seeds.

The Florida Gators are athletic, stacked and head coach Billy Donovan has pulled it off before. A key to beating them will be containing little Erving Walker. BYU had a shot at a No. 1 seed a few weeks ago until they kicked Brandon Davies off the team for an honour code violation. They still have scoring machine Jimmer Fredette in uniform but will that be enough?

Before the season, Michigan St. was in the mix as a title favourite but the team has been far too inconsistent this year. Spartans head coach Tom Izzo is one of the best in the league so maybe they can pull off a shocker or two.

St. John’s and Gonzaga square off in Round 2 (The first round after the play-in games) and it will be interesting to see if the Bulldogs return to their old upset form or if the senior leaders of the Red Storm can hold them off.

Final Four:

Duke, Kansas, Florida, Ohio St, North Carolina and Pittsburgh should all be favoured to cut down the nets in Houston when all is said and done. (Not necessarily in that order.)

There are a couple of dark horses that could also end up in Houston as Louisville, UConn, Kentucky and Arizona all have enough talent to do some damage.

And after all, if Butler can do it – why can’t anyone else?