Lang & Fitpatrick’s Super Bowl breakdown
Posted February 2, 2012 12:56 pm.
This article is more than 5 years old.
Led by Tom Brady, the Patriots are in their fifth Super Bowl over the last 11 seasons. The marriage between Brady and Bill Belichick has made the Patriots one of the most successful franchises in the modern history of the NFL.
If you based the outcome of this game solely on what both teams did in the regular season, it would be no contest. The Giants finished the season at 9-7. The Patriots finished with a record of 13-3.
In the regular season, the Giants allowed more points than they scored, meanwhile, the Patriots outscored their opponents by a margin of 171 points. But that was the regular season and this is the post-season.
In an almost exact repeat of their run to Super Bowl XLII, the Giants are peaking at exactly the right time with precisely the right balance on defence and offence. Eli Manning may never be viewed as a truly elite quarterback, but there’s no denying his ability to come through in the clutch.
In 2011, Manning set the new NFL record for the most fourth-quarter touchdown passes in a single season with 15. Of course, two of his 15 fourth-quarter touchdown passes took place during the Giants dramatic comeback win over the Patriots in Week 9. In the post-season, Manning has toyed with the Falcons, outplayed Aaron Rodgers during their win over the Packers in Green Bay, and then survived a physical pounding as the Giants beat the 49ers in overtime.
His opponent is Tom Brady, simply one of the finest quarterbacks the NFL has ever seen.
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Both teams have impressive strengths. Both teams have some worrisome weaknesses. Add it all up and you get the makings of a great game between two well coached and evenly matched teams.
The Giants win if: If Eli Manning can exploit the Patriots Achilles heel on defence: their thin secondary. Working with speed burners like Victor Cruz and Hakeem Nicks, Manning will be looking to attack the soft holes in the Patriots secondary.
Bills quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick was quick to point out that exploiting the holes in the Patriots secondary is a difficult task for any quarterback.
“The Patriots play a lot of man coverage so being able to win the one-on- one match-ups is key. They are very good at mixing up coverages and making mid-game adjustments so being able to recognize and counter their adjustments will also be a big key,” Fitzpatrick explained.
As impressive as Manning was in the Giants’ Super Bowl run four years ago, he’s been able to elevate his game even higher this year. The Giants also win if their defensive line can get consistent pressure against Tom Brady. In Super Bowl XLII, the Giants ability to get pressure on Brady and hit him every chance they had played a big role in their ability to slow down their explosive offense.
The Patriots win if: Tom Brady has time to breath. It is no secret that Giants coach Tom Coughlin and defensive coordinator Perry Fewell will be looking to unleash the dogs on Brady to see if they can rattle his cage. It is paramount that the Patriots find ways to protect Brady and allow him the chance to get the ball into the hands of Wes Welker and the rest of the Patriots receivers and tight ends.
Fitzpatrick pointed out that the key to the Patriots nullifying the Giants vaunted pass rush is not just the offensive line, but also the ability of Tom Brady to get rid of the ball quickly.
“Other than having tight ends and backs chip their way out to their routes, a quick passing game is another way to frustrate a good pass-rushing team. The Patriots are very good at the short- to intermediate- passing game, relying on the run after the catch to produce big plays. Getting the ball out fast doesn’t allow the front four to get to the quarterback, which is frustrating and can also slow the pass rush down as they try to bat balls down rather then get to the passer,” Fitzpatrick said.
The Patriots also win if their secondary can contain Victor Cruz and Hakeem Nicks. You add Mario Manningham to the mix and the Giants have three receivers who can stretch the field vertically and make big plays. In their three playoff games, the Giants receivers have caught four touchdowns over 20 yards long and two over 65 yards long. Keep in mind the Patriots pass defense was ranked 31st in the NFL in 2011.
Key match-ups
Jason Pierre-Paul versus Matt Light
In Pierre-Paul, the Giants have a defensive end with an explosive first step and is relentless in his pursuit of the quarterback. Light has been around the NFL a long time so what he lacks in pure physical skills he makes up for in veteran moves. With the Patriots offensive line already trying to contain the likes of Justin Tuck and Osi Umenyiora, Light is likely going to find he’s one-on-one with Paul on many offensive plays.
Kenny Phillips and Antrel Rolle versus Rob Gronkowski
Gronkowski, who has become a folk hero to Patriots fans, injured his ankle in the AFC Championship game. Even playing with a high-ankle sprain, Gronk will be a load for Phillips and Rolle to deal with. With his superior size and amazing hands, the Patriots like to use Gronkowski is a variety of roles to maximize his abilities. Even though the Giants beat the Patriots 24-20 in Week 9, the Patriots tight end still had eight catches for 101 yards and a touchdown.
X Factors
Giants running back Ahmad Bradshaw
In the Giants run to the Super Bowl, Bradshaw has been invaluable to Eli Manning as both a running back and a receiver. After catching 34 passes during the regular season, Bradshaw has caught 14 passes in the Giants three playoff games. Bradshaw is also averaging 4.3 yards per carry in his role as the Giants primary running back.
Patriots wide receiver/defensive back Julian Edelman
Out of necessity the Patriots have been forced to make Edelman play a number of reps as a defensive back. This means a lot of times when the Patriots go to a nickel defensive package, Edelman is in there as an extra cornerback. The Giants receivers have made it clear they are looking forward to try and expose Edelman in pass coverage. Edelman has to know that whenever Belichick uses him as a defensive back that Manning is going to try and pick on him.
Intangibles
Under Bill Belichick the Patriots have gone to four Super Bowls, winning three of them. Amazingly all four of those games have been decided by a margin of three points. Of course, the one Super Bowl that Belichick lost was to the Giants in Super Bowl XLII — a loss that ended the Patriots dreams of a perfect season. A win and Belichick will tie Chuck Knoll for the coach with the most Super Bowl wins at four.
Patriots running back BenJarvus Green-Ellis has never fumbled in 547 regular-season and post-season carries. The Giants are the second team in NFL history (Cardinals 2008) to beat three teams with a better record to advance to the Super Bowl.
In Super Bowl I, each member of the Green Bay Packers earned $15,000 dollars for winning the game. This year each member of the winning team will earn $88,000 dollars.
Who wins
Belichick and Brady desperately want to win a fourth Super Bowl. Four Super Bowl rings would put them in the pantheon of such legends like Chuck Knoll, Terry Bradshaw and Joe Montana. No matter what happens, Belichick and Brady’s respective resumes are beyond reproach. Brady and the Patriots are riding a 10-game winning streak into Super Bowl XLVI and most casinos have them listed as three-point favourites. But there is one big problem standing in their way, the New York football Giants. The Giants come strutting into Super Bowl XLVI holding the belief that nothing can stand in their way. This is a big, tough, battle-tested Giants team that isn’t the least bit intimidated by Belichick, Brady and the mythical Patriots mystique.
In the each of the Giants three playoff wins, their defence has hit the opposing quarterback (sacks and quarterback hits) nine times. Look for more of the same Sunday. With his older brother Peyton watching with great interest from a luxury suite at Lucas Oil Stadium, Eli will find a way to overcome everything the Patriots throw at him to win his second Super Bowl ring.
Lang’s prediction: Giants 27, Patriots 24
