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NDP keeps surging; Doug Ford 'has blown' the lead: poll

Last Updated May 29, 2018 at 4:52 pm EDT

NDP Leader Andrea Horwath and Ontario PC Leader Doug Ford (THE CANADIAN PRESS)

The NDP continue to gain ground at the expense of the PCs and Liberals according to a new Mainstreet Research poll.

The poll, which was conducted on May 26 and 27 before Sunday night’s leader’s debate, has Andrea Horwath’s NDPs in first place with 39.3 per cent support among decided or leaning voters. That’s up 10 per cent from Mainstreet’s last poll conducted on May 18.

Doug Ford’s PCs are still very much in the running though, with 37.3 per cent, down 4.6 per cent since the last poll. Kathleen Wynne’s Liberals remain a distant third with just 16 per cent support (down 6.3 per cent).

“It’s official – Doug Ford has blown the large lead he had in March and the Ontario election is a competitive affair,” President and CEO of Mainstreet Research, Quito Maggi, said in a release Monday.

“The question facing Ontarians is whether Ford or Andrea Horwath will get the keys to government for the next four years.”

“Given where the Liberals are at in terms of popular support, it is looking more and more likely that Ontario will elect a majority government – the only question is whether it’s the PCs or the NDP that will form it,” Maggi said, adding that it’s “doubtful that the Liberals will win more than a handful of seats …”

The poll also found that the NDP appeal more to young voters (18-34) — a group that is also the least likely to actually cast a vote.

“The PCs are well behind the NDP among voters aged 18-34, the largest voting bloc in Ontario but also the least likely to vote,” Maggi said.

“But the NDP are very competitive among voters over the age of 65, who are the most likely to vote, and also lead among voters aged 36 to 49.”

“If these trends continue, the NDP can well win the election without the millennial vote coming out to vote in droves.”

The poll surveyed 1682 Ontarians and has a margin of error of +/- 2.39% and is accurate 19 times out of 20.

Clarification: An earlier version of this story said the poll was fielded on March 27 and 28. Mainstreet Research said that was an error in their press release, and the poll was actually was conducted on the 26th, and 27th, before the Leader’s debate.