Only 9 fully vaccinated Ontarians under 60 have ended up in ICU, new data shows

With the majority of the eligible population now fully vaccinated against COVID-19, new public health data is providing a detailed look at who is still getting sick in Ontario.

The report from Public Health Ontario reveals only nine breakthrough cases of people under 60 have ended up in intensive care in the province.

A breakthrough case is defined as an infection with a symptom onset date that was at least two weeks after the individual received their second dose of a Health Canada authorized vaccine.

The report looks at 11 months of confirmed COVID-19 infections from Dec. 14 of last year to Nov. 14 of this year.

Using the most recent 30 days of data, unvaccinated individuals were nearly five times more likely to become a confirmed case. The rate of infection in unvaccinated individuals is higher in every single age group.

Hospitalizations among unvaccinated, partially vaccinated and breakthrough confirmed cases of COVID-19 by age group

Graphic courtesy of Public Health Ontario

Adults over 60 who are unvaccinated were 16 times more likely to be hospitalized with the virus compared to fully vaccinated individuals. The majority of people with cases serious enough to need hospital care are adults over the age of 60, with the highest proportion among those in their 80s.

The data reveals there were only 17,596 breakthrough cases out of the more than 11.1 million individuals who have received both shots. There have been just 40 breakthrough cases in the province following a third dose of vaccine.

As of Nov. 14, unvaccinated people made up 91 per cent of cases in the province, with breakthrough infections accounting for just under 4 per cent. Unvaccinated people also account for 91 per cent of hospitalizations and 90 per cent of deaths.

The report finds that the number of post-vaccination cases declines dramatically as the time from vaccination increases.

Confirmed post-vaccination cases of COVID-19 by number of days between dose administration and symptom onset

Graphic courtesy of Public Health Ontario

In the latest pandemic modelling released two weeks ago, the province’s science advisory table projected a weakening correlation between case counts and ICU admissions thanks to the effectiveness of vaccines on more severe cases of the virus.

The panel noted that the vaccines have played a key role in keeping COVID indicators stable for most of the fall. The panel said at the time that unvaccinated people are 26 times more likely to be admitted to the ICU with COVID-19, 11 times more likely to be hospitalized and six times more likely of having any symptoms if infected.

The next step of the Ford government’s reopening plan is scheduled for Jan. 17 and could see capacity limits gradually lifted in places where proof of vaccination is not required. The vaccine certificate could also be gradually lifted at this time.

The province intended on removing capacity limits in nightclubs and strip clubs on Nov. 15, but paused the gradual reopening due to a recent surge in COVID-19 infections.

The province says the move will be delayed for at least 28 days as they continue to monitor the COVID indicators.