Why there’s little optimism as Iran nuclear talks restart

As world powers resumed nuclear talks with Iran on Monday, the first with a new hardline administration in Tehran, there’s little optimism for a breakthrough at the negotiating table.

The talks are aimed at restoring the deal reached in 2015, named the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, which gave Iran relief from economic sanctions in return for limits on its enrichment of uranium.

Sanctions were reimposed when former President Donald Trump quit the deal three years ago.

“The economy of Iran is in dire straits, there are demonstrations against the regime, yet …this regime is basically dictating to the superpower,” said Aurel Braun, a professor of international relations and political science at the University of Toronto.

The U.S. does not have a seat at the table. Instead, its delegation is waiting in an antechamber to be briefed on the talks by diplomats from the other signatories.

Iran has made clear it sees no path forward unless all sanctions imposed on it are lifted.

“The return of the U.S. to the nuclear deal would be meaningless without guarantees to prevent the recurrence of the bitter experience of the past,” Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, Iran’s minister of foreign affairs, said in a statement before the talks began. “I would like to emphasize once again that this opportunity is not a window that could remain open forever.”

Braun told CityNews he believes giving into Iran’s demands would be in the interest of western countries if Tehran would reliably give up, not just building a nuclear weapon, but also its nuclear command-and-control systems, as well as its ballistic missile program.

He said there’s no suggestion Iran is prepared to do that, adding, “way before the American withdrawal in 2018 from this agreement, Iran was moving full steam ahead on all sorts of other elements, even if perhaps it may have slowed down on building the bomb.”

But even then, there was never a complete picture, said Braun, after Iran restricted international inspections.

With Iran appearing to grant few concessions, Braun told CityNews the negotiations will yield little.

“Unless you have a full spectrum agreement, where you have a verification system that is anytime, anywhere, it’s not going to work.”