COVID-19 Omicron cases in Ontario estimated to double every 3 days, science table reports
Posted December 13, 2021 2:21 pm.
Last Updated December 13, 2021 2:30 pm.
With Ontario continuing to see COVID-19 cases and the associated seven-day averages grow in recent days, a provincial independent body of experts is reporting Omicron variant cases are estimated to be currently doubling every three days.
According to a monitoring dashboard published by Ontario’s COVID-19 Science Advisory Table, the spread appears to be surging at a rate quicker than the Delta variant — which experts said is estimated to be doubling every 41 days.
Looking specifically at the effective reproduction number (the estimated average number of people who will be infected by someone who has COVID-19), Omicron cases were estimated to be at 4.01 as of Tuesday compared to the Delta variant (which for months has been the dominant strain of COVID-19 in Ontario) at 1.09. So for every confirmed Omicron variant case, it was estimated four others subsequently became infected. All variant cases had a reproduction rate of 1.32.
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“The current surge is mostly Delta, but it’s hitting us just as we need to be ramping up for Omicron and it’s a sign of how vulnerable an [unvaccinated or undervaccinated] province is,” officials said on the advisory body’s Twitter account Monday morning.
Amid a push to roll out third COVID-19 vaccine doses in an effort to boost immunity against COVID-19, data published by the advisory table showed a lower risk for people who have received at least two doses.
It showed there were 82.2 COVID-19 cases for every one million people in Ontario who had at least two doses compared to 337.2 cases for every one million people in those who were unvaccinated. Provincial data showed approximately 81 per cent of all eligible Ontario residents five and older are considered to be fully vaccinated (11,330,544 people)
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When it comes to patients who have COVID-19 and are in hospital, the advisory table data showed there were 8.8 fully vaccinated people admitted for every one million residents in the province compared to 164.9 unvaccinated people. For those in ICUs, there were 3.3 fully vaccinated patients for every one million residents in the province compared to 94.6 unvaccinated patients.
The table’s update came on the same day as the Ontario government expanded vaccine booster eligibility to all residents 50 and older. It also came as the province saw more than 1,500 people test positive for COVID-19 in the most recent 24-hour period, marking the sixth straight day where new cases have been more than 1,000.
During a news conference at Queen’s Park on Friday, Dr. Kieran Moore, Ontario’s chief medical officer of health, said early data suggests the Omicron variant could be the dominant strain in early 2022. Much is still uncertain about the variant, including the severity of the illness.
Omicron is here 1/5 We’re now following Omicron closely on our dashboard. Some key figures: Rt for Omicron is 3.32 (!!!), compared to 1.27 for all variants combined…. #COVID19ON https://t.co/U6F16usw2A
— COVIDScienceOntario (@COVIDSciOntario) December 13, 2021
Omicron is here 3/5 21% of Ontario’s cases are now Omicron. The number of Omicron cases here is doubling every three (!!) days. #COVID19ON https://t.co/U6F16usw2A
— COVIDScienceOntario (@COVIDSciOntario) December 13, 2021
Omicron is here 5/5 The current surge is mostly Delta, but it’s hitting us just as we need to be ramping up for Omicron – and it’s a sign of how vulnerable an un/undervaccinated province is. #COVID19ON https://t.co/U6F16usw2A pic.twitter.com/66YhJ0l1JU
— COVIDScienceOntario (@COVIDSciOntario) December 13, 2021
